Cambio estructural, crecimiento e industrialización en América Latina 1950-2005

Abstract

Utilizando el marco teórico del crecimiento basado en el cambio estructural —que se desarrolló durante la fase de la “alta teoría del desarrollo” y mantiene intacta su vigencia—, en este trabajo se examina la relación entre industrialización y crecimiento en América Latina y en Colombia, en particular, durante el período 1950-2005. La tesis central es que esta asociación presenta un quiebre estructural a mediados del decenio de los setenta. En el primer subperíodo, la industria manufacturera crece por encima del PIB, impulsando altas tasas de crecimiento de esta variable y también de la productividad y el empleo; y en el segundo, el crecimiento industrial, su productividad y capacidad de generación de empleo declinan, arrastrando en su caída al conjunto de la economía. La relación entre las dos variables mencionadas se examina econométricamente, con base en el modelo kaldoriano de crecimiento impulsado por la industria. El trabajo identifica además, las consecuencias negativas que, en términos de estructura productiva y capacidad de generación de empleo, ha traído consigo la desindustrialización “prematura” que experimentaron las economías latinoamericanas, haciendo especial referencia al caso colombiano. / Abstract. Applying the theoretical framework of growth based on structural change —developed during the phase of the “high theory of development” that keeps in the present its relevance—, this work examines the relationship between industrialization and growth in Latin America and Colombia, in particular, during the period going from 1950-2005. The main tenet is that this association experiences a structural break in the midst of the seventies. In the first subperiod, manufacturing grows faster than the GNP, yielding high growth rates of this variable; and in the second, the industry growth, its productivity and employment generation declines, pulling down in its fall the overall growth of the economy. The relationship between the above mentioned variables is empiricaly tested, on the basis of the Kaldorian model of the industry as the “engine of growth”. In addition, the work identifies the negative consequences of the premature industrialization in Latin America, in terms of the productive structure backwardness and employment generation capacity. Specific reference is made to the Colombian case.

Abstract: Applying the theoretical framework of growth based on structural change —developed during the phase of the “high theory of development” that keeps in the present its relevance—, this work examines the relationship between industrialization and growth in Latin America and Colombia, in particular, during the period going from 1950-2005. The main tenet is that this association experiences a structural break in the midst of the seventies. In the first subperiod, manufacturing grows faster than the GNP, yielding high growth rates of this variable; and in the second, the industry growth, its productivity and employment generation declines, pulling down in its fall the overall growth of the economy. The relationship between the above mentioned variables is empiricaly tested, on the basis of the Kaldorian model of the industry as the “engine of growth”. In addition, the work identifies the negative consequences of the premature industrialization in Latin America, in terms of the productive structure backwardness and employment generation capacity. Specific reference is made to the Colombian case.