Síntesis metodológica para el estudio y representación de dinámicas complejas de mercados eléctricos

Abstract

En el siguiente documento de tesis doctoral, se propone un enfoque de análisis cualitativo y con este una síntesis metodológica, para definir y comprender el comportamiento complejo de un mercado de electricidad nacional. Para tal fin, se presenta una propuesta metodolo ́gica que rescata el conjunto de ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias, para un modelo basado en dinámica de sistemas, cuyo propósito es reunir las principales caracter ́ısticas de un mercado de electricidad nacional fundamentado en la estrategia económica de oferta y demanda. Como se mostrará a lo largo de la tesis, el propósito de la misma se fundamenta en el aprove- chamiento y la manera en que para mercados de electricidad es posible utilizar la dinámica de sistemas y los sistemas din ́amicos con un solo prop ́osito, la formulación de elementos de política eneroéica.

Abstract: In this work a qualitative analysis approach is proposed in order to define and understand the complex behavior in a national electricity market. We consider a set of ordinary diffe- rential equations that describe the main features of a national electricity market, based on demand and supply side economy strategy. Until now, no work has been reported related to this topic using bifurcations criteria. The growing interest in personal ways of self-generation using renewable sources can lead the national grid to a standstill and low investment in the system. However, it is important to preserve the national grid as a power supply support to domestic and enterprise demand. In order to understand this scenario, we include a piece wise modeling and analysis. Under this hypothesis, the market exhibits numerical, policy and mode sensibility. Also, a bifurcation appears related to a policy which involves the variation of the capacity charge. As a first important result, we found that it is possible to preserve the investments in the market since, through the capacity charge parameter, the system dynamics can be controlled. From a mathematical point of view, according to the value of the capacity charge, the equilibrium of the set of equations can be feasible or virtual; also a set of pseudoequilibria appear. Then, from a business approach, it is necessary to know the effects of the strategic policy in the system scheme.