Modelamiento del consumo de gas natural en Antioquia utilizando un modelo de dinámica de sistemas

Abstract

Este trabajo contiene la caracterización del mercado del gas natural en Antioquia, así como la aplicación de la dinámica de sistemas para modelar el consumo de gas natural en la región, planteando diferentes escenarios. El modelo diseñado tiene en cuenta diferentes variables endógenas y exógenas que afectan la decisión de conectarse al gas natural, teniendo en cuenta el análisis de esta decisión de conexión mediante un modelo logístico. El objetivo de este modelo es evaluar los efectos de las diferentes variables de población, económicas, del mercado de acuerdo al sector de consumo.

Abstract: This work contains the characterization of natural gas market to international, national and regional (Antioquia), and the use of system dynamics to model the natural gas consumption, considering different scenarios. This work considers different endogenous and exogenous variables affecting the decision to connect the natural gas and energy was taken into account the analysis of this decision through a Logit model. The objective of this model is evaluate the effects of different variables of growth or decline of the population, housing, industry, trade and regional vehicles and how this can affect the companies providing the service at the time of negotiating contracts. For each of the sectors of consumption, a system dynamics model is built and several scenarios representing different conditions are simulated. System dynamics is used because there are complex variables and relationships in the natural gas sector. Then, this methodology complements traditionally used analysis tools Finally this type is proposed as an alternative model in business off to achieve a global trend and evaluate different scenarios and thus support decision making.