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Tendencia espacio temporal de la concentración de MP2,5 y su carga de mortalidad en Bogotá entre 2008 y 2021
dc.rights.license | Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional |
dc.contributor.advisor | Urdinola, B. Piedad |
dc.contributor.advisor | Rojas, Néstor Yesid |
dc.contributor.author | González Gutiérrez, David Alejandro |
dc.coverage.temporal | 2008-2021 |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-01-30T16:16:33Z |
dc.date.available | 2024-01-30T16:16:33Z |
dc.date.issued | 2023 |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/85522 |
dc.description | ilustraciones (principalmente a color), diagramas |
dc.description.abstract | La exposición prolongada a material particulado fino, de tamaño inferior a 2,5 micras (MP2,5), representa uno de los siete factores de mayor riesgo de muertes prematuras en todo el mundo. Con esta motivación, en el presente trabajo se estimó el número de muertes prematuras asociadas a la exposición prolongada de MP2,5 en la ciudad de Bogotá, por localidad y para el período comprendido entre los años 2008 y 2021. Para lograrlo, se realizaron modelos de los niveles de concentración de MP2,5 anualmente y se promediaron, utilizando dos enfoques: un modelo bosque aleatorio (RF) y un modelo refuerzo de gradiente extremo (XGBoost). Además, se calculó el cociente de riesgo para las muertes cardio metabólicas mediante un modelo proporcional de Cox, tomando como población de referencia la que estuvo expuesta a niveles iguales o menores a 15,15µg/m3 . Los resultados revelaron que un incremento en los niveles de MP2,5 está asociado con un aumento en la cantidad de muertes cardio metabólicas, y se identificó que las localidades más afectadas son Kennedy, Bosa y Ciudad Bolívar. Estos hallazgos son coherentes con otros resultados presentados en la literatura. En conclusión, este documento contribuye al análisis del impacto de la contaminación en la salud pública de la ciudad de Bogotá. (Texto tomado de la fuente) |
dc.description.abstract | Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter, which is less than 2.5 microns in size (PM2.5), is considered one of the seven major risk factors for premature deaths worldwide. As a result, it becomes crucial to investigate its local effects and implement public health policies aimed at reducing premature mortality. This study focuses on estimating the number of premature deaths linked to PM2.5 material exposure in Bogota, analyzing data by locality for the years 2008 to 2021. To achieve this, the concentration levels of PM2.5 were modeled and averaged annually, using two approaches: a random forest model and an XGBoost model. In addition, the hazard ratio for cardio-metabolic deaths was calculated using a Cox proportional model, taking as the reference population those exposed to levels equal to or less than 15.15g/m3 . The findings demonstrate a direct correlation between elevated PM2.5 levels and an increase in cardio-metabolic deaths, with Kennedy, Bosa, and Ciudad Bolivar emerging as the most affected localities. These outcomes align with previous research in the field. Consequently, this document contributes to the broader analysis of pollution’s impact on public health in Bogota. |
dc.format.extent | xii, 45 páginas |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf |
dc.language.iso | spa |
dc.publisher | Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ |
dc.subject.ddc | 510 - Matemáticas::519 - Probabilidades y matemáticas aplicadas |
dc.subject.ddc | 300 - Ciencias sociales::304 - Factores que afectan el comportamiento social |
dc.subject.lcc | Material particulado |
dc.subject.lcc | Particulate matter |
dc.title | Tendencia espacio temporal de la concentración de MP2,5 y su carga de mortalidad en Bogotá entre 2008 y 2021 |
dc.type | Trabajo de grado - Maestría |
dc.type.driver | info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion |
dc.publisher.program | Bogotá - Ciencias - Maestría en Ciencias - Estadística |
dc.coverage.city | Bogotá |
dc.description.degreelevel | Maestría |
dc.description.degreename | Magíster en Ciencias – Estadística |
dc.identifier.instname | Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
dc.identifier.reponame | Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
dc.identifier.repourl | https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ |
dc.publisher.faculty | Facultad de Ciencias |
dc.publisher.place | Bogotá, Colombia |
dc.publisher.branch | Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá |
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dc.rights.accessrights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
dc.subject.decs | Exposición a riesgos ambientales |
dc.subject.decs | Environmental exposure |
dc.subject.lemb | Air-pollution - Measurement |
dc.subject.lemb | Contaminación del aire - Mediciones |
dc.subject.lemb | Estadística vital |
dc.subject.lemb | Vital statistics |
dc.subject.lemb | Mortalidad - Estadísticas |
dc.subject.lemb | Mortality - Statistics |
dc.subject.lemb | Evaluación de impacto ambiental - Métodos estadísticos |
dc.subject.lemb | Environmental impact analysis - Statistical methods |
dc.subject.proposal | Carga de mortalidad |
dc.subject.proposal | Cociente de riesgo |
dc.subject.proposal | Polución |
dc.subject.proposal | MP2,5 |
dc.subject.proposal | Mortalidad |
dc.subject.proposal | Exposición de largo plazo |
dc.subject.proposal | Curva concentración - Respuesta |
dc.subject.proposal | Mortality burden |
dc.subject.proposal | Hazard ratio |
dc.subject.proposal | Pollution |
dc.subject.proposal | PM2.5 |
dc.subject.proposal | Mortality |
dc.subject.proposal | Long-term exposure |
dc.subject.proposal | Concentration-response curve |
dc.title.translated | Spatiotemporal trend of PM2.5 and its mortality burden in Bogota between 2008 and 2021 |
dc.type.coar | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdcc |
dc.type.coarversion | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa |
dc.type.content | Text |
dc.type.redcol | http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TM |
oaire.accessrights | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopment | Estudiantes |
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopment | Investigadores |
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopment | Maestros |
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