On the role of the Indian Ocean as a precursor of ENSO

dc.contributor.advisorHoyos Ortiz, Carlos David
dc.contributor.authorMantilla Quintero, Juan Diego
dc.date.accessioned2022-11-16T15:01:30Z
dc.date.available2022-11-16T15:01:30Z
dc.date.issued2022-11-14
dc.descriptionilustraciones, diagramasspa
dc.description.abstractAlthough the major aspects that give rise to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of climate variability on the interannual time scale, are reasonably well understood, predicting the state of ENSO before the preceding boreal spring has proved to be challenging. Recent investigations suggested that interannual SST variability over the Indian Ocean can influence the following year’s ENSO and its phase transition, thus representing a potential additional source of predictability. This research aims to analyze the coupled interaction between the Indian and Pacific oceans that could provide information beyond the spring predictability barrier. Firstly, an empirical approach is used to study the subsurface temperature covariability across the two oceans to assess the role of the Indian Ocean as a precursor of the ENSO. Furthermore, two possible coupling mechanisms are investigated. Then, we assessed the representation of the CMIP6’s historical simulation of the subsurface covariability between the two oceans and compared the performance with the compressive CLIVAR ENSO metrics. Finally, using a simple conceptual model, we investigate the repercussions of the Indian Ocean over ENSO’s dynamical behavior, represented by the addition of an idealized MJO-forcing parameter over the Western Pacific. Overall, the results highlighted the role of the interbasin subsurface coupling in favoring the ENSO phase transitions and support the view that tropical Indo-Pacific climate variability should be studied as a whole rather than as separated basin modes.eng
dc.description.abstractAunque los aspectos principales que dan lugar a El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO), el modo dominante de variabilidad climática en la escala de tiempo interanual, se comprenden razonablemente bien, predecir el estado de ENSO antes de la primavera boreal continúa representando un desafío. Investigaciones recientes sugiriere que la variabilidad interanual de la temperature superficial del mar sobre el Océano Índico puede influir en desarrollo del ENSO del año siguiente como también en sus transiciones de fase, representando una posible fuente adicional de predictibilidad. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo analizar la interacción acoplada entre los océanos Índico y Pacífico que podría proporcionar información más allá de la barrera de predictibilidad de primaveral. En primer lugar, se utiliza un enfoque empírico para estudiar la covariabilidad de la temperatura del subsuperficie en los dos océanos para evaluar el papel del Océano Índico como precursor del ENSO. Además, se investigan dos posibles mecanismos acoplados. Luego, evaluamos la representación de las simulaciones históricas del CMIP6 de la covariabilidad entre los dos océanos y comparamos el rendimiento con las métricas compresivas del CLIVAR ENSO. Finalmente, usando un modelo conceptual simple, investigamos las repercusiones del Océano Índico sobre el comportamiento dinámico de ENSO, representado por la adición de un parámetro idealizado del forzamiento de la MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) sobre el Pacífico Occidental. Los resultados resaltan el papel del acoplamiento de la subsuperficien entre las dos cuencas para favorer el cambio de fase del ENSO, y respaldan la opinión de que la variabilidad climática del Indo-Pacífico tropical debe estudiarse como un todo en lugar de modos de variabilidad separados. (Texto tomado de la fuente)spa
dc.description.curricularareaÁrea Curricular de Medio Ambientespa
dc.description.degreelevelMaestríaspa
dc.description.degreenameMagíster en Ingeniería - Recursos Hidráulicosspa
dc.description.researchareaClimatologyspa
dc.format.extent117 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.instnameUniversidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.identifier.reponameRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.identifier.repourlhttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/spa
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/82703
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherUniversidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.publisher.branchUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Medellínspa
dc.publisher.facultyFacultad de Minasspa
dc.publisher.placeMedellín, Colombiaspa
dc.publisher.programMedellín - Minas - Maestría en Ingeniería - Recursos Hidráulicosspa
dc.relation.indexedRedColspa
dc.relation.indexedLaReferenciaspa
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dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.rights.licenseAtribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacionalspa
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/spa
dc.subject.ddc550 - Ciencias de la tierra::551 - Geología, hidrología, meteorologíaspa
dc.subject.ddc620 - Ingeniería y operaciones afines::629 - Otras ramas de la ingenieríaspa
dc.subject.lembCambios climáticos
dc.subject.lembClimatic changes
dc.subject.proposalEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)eng
dc.subject.proposalInter-basin Interactioneng
dc.subject.proposalTropical Indo-Pacificeng
dc.subject.proposalIndian Ocean Dipole (IOD)eng
dc.subject.proposalIndian Ocean basin-wide Mode (IOBM)eng
dc.subject.proposalMadden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)eng
dc.subject.proposalIntraseasonal variability (ISV)eng
dc.subject.proposalInterannual variabilityeng
dc.subject.proposalCMIP6eng
dc.subject.proposalExtended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF)eng
dc.subject.proposalDeterministic Chaoseng
dc.subject.proposalEl Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO)spa
dc.subject.proposalInteracción entre cuencasspa
dc.subject.proposalIndoPacífico tropicalspa
dc.subject.proposalDipolo del Océano Índico (IOD)spa
dc.subject.proposalOscilación de Madden-Julian (MJO)spa
dc.subject.proposalVariabilidad intraestacional (ISV)spa
dc.subject.proposalVariabilidad interanualspa
dc.subject.proposalFunciones ortogonales empíricas extendidas (EEOF)spa
dc.subject.proposalCaos determinísticospa
dc.titleOn the role of the Indian Ocean as a precursor of ENSOeng
dc.title.translatedInfluencia del Océano Índico en la evolución del ENSOspa
dc.typeTrabajo de grado - Maestríaspa
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdccspa
dc.type.coarversionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aaspa
dc.type.contentTextspa
dc.type.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisspa
dc.type.redcolhttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TMspa
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentEstudiantesspa
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentInvestigadoresspa
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentMaestrosspa
oaire.accessrightshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2spa

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