Efectos de la credibilidad fiscal sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia: evidencia empírica para el período 2005-2019

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dc.contributor.advisorGalvis-Ciro, Juan Camilo
dc.contributor.authorRamos Barroso, Cristina Isabel
dc.coverage.countryColombia
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-25T20:10:33Z
dc.date.available2021-05-25T20:10:33Z
dc.date.issued2020-05-25
dc.description.abstractEl propósito de este trabajo es analizar el impacto de la credibilidad fiscal en la economía colombiana durante el período 2005-2019. Para esto, se construye un indicador de credibilidad fiscal y se evalúa su efecto sobre las expectativas de inversión en la industria. Con datos mensuales de la credibilidad fiscal y las expectativas de inversión como variables principales del estudio, y un grupo de variables control (volatilidad del precio del petróleo, tasa de interés de política monetaria y el riesgo de liquidez internacional), se realizaron estimaciones mediante el método OLS y GMM. También fueron estimadas funciones de impulso respuesta mediante un VAR, para dar solidez a los resultados. Los hallazgos revelan que la credibilidad fiscal influye de forma directa en las decisiones de inversión de los agentes privados durante el período analizado, lo que comprueba la importancia del buen manejo de las finanzas públicas para estimular el gasto privado en el país. En relación con las variables de control incluidas en el análisis, se encontró que la tasa de interés del banco central, la volatilidad del precio del petróleo y el riesgo de liquidez internacional tienen un efecto negativo sobre la inversión.spa
dc.description.abstractThe purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of fiscal credibility on the Colombian economy during the period 2005-2019. We built a fiscal credibility index, and its effect on private investment is verified. With monthly data on fiscal credibility and investment expectations as the main variables of the study, and a group of control variables (oil price volatility, monetary policy interest rate and the international liquidity risk index), estimates were made using OLS and GMM. In addition, impulse response functions were applied through a VAR, to give solidity to the initial results. The findings reveal that fiscal credibility influences directly the investment decisions of private agents during the period analyzed, which shows the importance of good management of public finances to stimulate private investment in the country. In relation to control variables included in the analysis, it was found that the central bank interest rate, the oil price volatility and the risk of international liquidity have a negative effect on investment.eng
dc.description.degreelevelMaestríaspa
dc.description.degreenameMagister en Ciencias Económicasspa
dc.format.extent75 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.instnameUniversidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.identifier.reponameRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.identifier.repourlhttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/spa
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/79558
dc.language.isospaspa
dc.publisherUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Medellínspa
dc.publisher.branchUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Medellínspa
dc.publisher.departmentDepartamento de Economíaspa
dc.publisher.facultyFacultad de Ciencias Humanas y Económicasspa
dc.publisher.placeMedellínspa
dc.publisher.programMedellín - Ciencias Humanas y Económicas - Maestría en Ciencias Económicasspa
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dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.rights.licenseAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacionalspa
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/spa
dc.subject.ddc330 - Economíaspa
dc.subject.ddc650 - Gerencia y servicios auxiliares::658 - Gerencia generalspa
dc.subject.lembColombia - Política Económica - 2005-2019
dc.subject.lembHacienda pública
dc.subject.proposalCredibilidad fiscalspa
dc.subject.proposalInversiónspa
dc.subject.proposalFinanzas públicasspa
dc.subject.proposalColombiaspa
dc.subject.proposalFiscal credibilityeng
dc.subject.proposalInvestmenteng
dc.subject.proposalPublic financeeng
dc.titleEfectos de la credibilidad fiscal sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia: evidencia empírica para el período 2005-2019spa
dc.title.translatedEffects of fiscal credibility on investment expectations in Colombia: empirical evidence for the period 2005-2019eng
dc.typeTrabajo de grado - Maestríaspa
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdccspa
dc.type.coarversionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aaspa
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dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
oaire.accessrightshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2spa

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