Modelos estadísticos para evaluar la vida útil de las cerdas reproductoras en una granja de cría comercial

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dc.contributor.advisorLopera Gómez, Carlos Mariospa
dc.contributor.authorLópez Mesa, Juan Carlosspa
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-01T16:36:50Zspa
dc.date.available2020-09-01T16:36:50Zspa
dc.date.issued2020-08-24spa
dc.description.abstractlos partos dependen en gran medida los resultados económicos y técnicos de las granjas de cría de cerdos. Lograr un adecuado número de partos hará que el dinero invertido en la cerda reproductora sea amortizado en una mayor cantidad de cerdos que salen a mercado y que los partos ocurran dentro de los intervalos de tiempo esperados hará que se requiera menor inversión en sostenimiento de los animales en la granja. En la granja analizada, cerca del 45% de las cerdas no alcanzaron el objetivo de producción en cuanto al número de partos. Adicionalmente, las que si alcanzan el número de partos están tardando entre 31 y 41 días más de lo esperado. En este trabajo se analizó la recurrencia en el número de partos de las cerdas y se ajustaron diferentes modelos estadísticos para evaluar el efecto de variables medidas en hembras de reemplazo sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia o de descarte temprano o no deseado. Se espera que la implementación de estos ayude a optimizar la selección de hembras de reemplazo de tal modo que una mayor proporción de hembras logren los partos esperados y que lo hagan en menor tiempo. Se observó que la tasa de recurrencia en los partos es menor al potencial productivo de las cerdas. En los modelos ajustados de las variables medidas a hembras de reemplazo, el peso al nacimiento, el peso al destete y la edad a la pubertad son determinantes en la probabilidad de descarte por causas diferentes a la edad. Con la implementación de este trabajo es posible establecer criterios de selección de hembras de reemplazo basados en su peso al nacimiento, peso al destete y edad a la pubertad; se espera que las hembras seleccionadas a partir de estos nuevos criterios sean más longevas ya que tendrán una menor probabilidad de ser descartadas por casuas diferentes de la edad.spa
dc.description.abstractThe economic and technical results of breeding farms largely depend on the sows longevity and farrowings recurrence. Achieving an adequate sow parity will make invested money in the sow be amortized in a greater number of pigs that go to market and that the farrowings occur within the expected time intervals will require less investment in farm animals support. In the analyzed farm, about 45\% sows did not reach the parity goal. Additionally, those that do reach this parity are taking between 31 and 41 days longer than expected. In this work, the sows farrowing recurrence was analyzed and different statistical models were adjusted to evaluate the effect of variables measured in gilts on survival probability or early or unwanted culling. The implementation of these is expected to help optimize the gilts selection so that a higher sows proportion achieve the expected parity and do so in less time. It was observed that farrowing recurrence is less than the sows productive potential. In the adjusted models birth weight, weaning weight, and the puberty age are determining factors in the culling probability due to causes other than age. With the implementation of this work it is possible to establish gilts selection criteria based on their birth weight, weaning weight, and puberty age; sows selected with of these new criteria are expected to be more longevity since they will have a lower culling probability by causes other than age.spa
dc.description.degreelevelMaestríaspa
dc.format.extent103spa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.citationLópez Mesa, Juan (2020). Modelos estadísticos para evaluar la vida útil de las cerdas reproductoras en una granja de cría comercial. Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellín. Trabajo de Gradospa
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/78353
dc.language.isospaspa
dc.publisher.branchUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Medellínspa
dc.publisher.departmentEscuela de estadísticaspa
dc.publisher.programMedellín - Ciencias - Maestría en Ciencias - Estadísticaspa
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dc.relation.referencesZhao, Yunxiang, Xiaohong Liu, Delin Mo, Qingsen Chen, y Yaosheng Chen (2015): “Analysis of reasons for sow culling and seasonal effects on reproductive disorders in Southern China”, Animal Reproduction Science, Elsevier, 159, pp. 191-197, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anireprosci.2015.06.018>.spa
dc.rightsDerechos reservados - Universidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.rights.licenseAtribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacionalspa
dc.rights.spaAcceso abiertospa
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/spa
dc.subject.ddc590 - Animalesspa
dc.subject.ddc510 - Matemáticas::519 - Probabilidades y matemáticas aplicadasspa
dc.subject.proposalAnálisis de Supervivenciaspa
dc.subject.proposalSurvival Analysiseng
dc.subject.proposalMean Cumulative Functioneng
dc.subject.proposalFunción de Media Acumuladaspa
dc.subject.proposalAnálisis Recurrenciaspa
dc.subject.proposalRecurrence Analysiseng
dc.subject.proposalModelo de Coxspa
dc.subject.proposalCox Modeleng
dc.subject.proposalLogistic Regressioneng
dc.subject.proposalRegresión Logísticaspa
dc.subject.proposalRegresión Multinomialspa
dc.subject.proposalMultinomial Regressioneng
dc.subject.proposalBosques Aleatoriosspa
dc.subject.proposalRandom Forestseng
dc.subject.proposalCausas de Descarte de Cerdasspa
dc.subject.proposalSow cullingeng
dc.subject.proposalLongevidad de la Cerdaspa
dc.subject.proposalSow Longevityeng
dc.titleModelos estadísticos para evaluar la vida útil de las cerdas reproductoras en una granja de cría comercialspa
dc.title.alternativeStatistical models to evaluate sows longevity in a commercial breeding farmspa
dc.typeTrabajo de grado - Maestríaspa
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdccspa
dc.type.coarversionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85spa
dc.type.contentTextspa
dc.type.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisspa
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionspa
oaire.accessrightshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2spa

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