Los efectos de los biocombustibles en la seguridad alimentaria en Colombia: una aproximación con Dinámica de Sistemas
Authors
Martínez Jaramillo, Juan Esteban
Director
Content type
Trabajo de grado - Maestría
Document language
EspañolPublication date
2015-08-25
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Abstract
En esta tesis se evalúan los efectos que tiene la producción de biocombustibles en la seguridad alimentaria en Colombia, donde la decisión en el uso de la tierra y el uso final de la materia prima agrícola son las variables clave para analizar los efectos que tiene la política de producción de biocombustibles sobre la seguridad alimentaria. Para la evaluación se construyó un modelo partiendo del desarrollado por Girlado (2013). El modelo desarrollado considera la interacción por el uso de la tierra entre la producción alimentaria, biocombustibles y ganadería. Las simulaciones muestran como los efectos que tienen los biocombustibles en la Seguridad Alimentaria están sobrevalorados. Para el caso del uso de la tierra el modelo arroja un aumento del 12,4%, para el precio de los alimentos un incremento del 3,3% y para la proporción de población vulnerable NBA un crecimiento del 1,59%. Por último los resultados muestran como una política en el uso eficiente de la tierra en el caso pecuario puede tener un mayor impacto en el desempeño tanto en la seguridad alimentaria como en la producción de biocombustibles en Colombia.
Abstract: In this thesis is evaluated the effects of biofuel production on food security in Colombia. A revision of the literature allowed us to identify the decision of use of land use and the final use of agriculture commodities as key variables to analyze the effect of biofuel production policies on food security. A model was constructed for the evaluation based on a previous one developed by Giraldo (2013). The model developed model takes into account the interaction on the use of land between food production, biofuel production and livestock farming. The simulations show that the effects of biofuels in Food Security are overestimated. The model shows an increase in land use of 12.4%, food prices grows in 3.3% and the proportion of vulnerable population in food basic needs rises in 1.59%. At the same time, results shows how a policy focused on the efficient use of land for livestock policies could have a larger impact on performance, in terms of food security and biofuel production in Colombia.
Abstract: In this thesis is evaluated the effects of biofuel production on food security in Colombia. A revision of the literature allowed us to identify the decision of use of land use and the final use of agriculture commodities as key variables to analyze the effect of biofuel production policies on food security. A model was constructed for the evaluation based on a previous one developed by Giraldo (2013). The model developed model takes into account the interaction on the use of land between food production, biofuel production and livestock farming. The simulations show that the effects of biofuels in Food Security are overestimated. The model shows an increase in land use of 12.4%, food prices grows in 3.3% and the proportion of vulnerable population in food basic needs rises in 1.59%. At the same time, results shows how a policy focused on the efficient use of land for livestock policies could have a larger impact on performance, in terms of food security and biofuel production in Colombia.