Ciclo político de los negocios en Colombia 1950-2014
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Coronel López, Jorge Enrique
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El presente trabajo pretende hacer un análisis sobre los ciclos políticos en Colombia entre 1950-2014, tanto desde una perspectiva oportunista, como partidista y tomando en consideración las expectativas racionales y adaptativas de los votantes. Se recurre a las principales variables macroeconómicas, usualmente utilizadas en estos análisis, y se incluyen variables control que permitan capturar determinados efectos políticos y económicos. Las comprobaciones empíricas se realizan bajo la técnica de cuantiles. Los resultados sugieren más evidencias de ciclos políticos oportunistas que partidistas con mayor influencia fiscal que monetaria.
Abstract: This paper aims to make an analysis of the political cycles in Colombia between 1950-2014 , both from an opportunistic perspective, as partisan and taking into consideration the rational or adaptive expectations of the voters. The main macroeconomic variables usually used in these analyzes and control variables that capture certain political or economic effects are included. The empirical tests are conducted under the technique of quantile. The results suggest more evidence of opportunistic political cycles more partisan prosecutor monetary influence.
Abstract: This paper aims to make an analysis of the political cycles in Colombia between 1950-2014 , both from an opportunistic perspective, as partisan and taking into consideration the rational or adaptive expectations of the voters. The main macroeconomic variables usually used in these analyzes and control variables that capture certain political or economic effects are included. The empirical tests are conducted under the technique of quantile. The results suggest more evidence of opportunistic political cycles more partisan prosecutor monetary influence.