Validación de modelos de predicción de deslizamientos mediante el uso de inventarios en escalas sub-regionales
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Cardona Giraldo, Isabel Kristina
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Trabajo de grado - Maestría
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EspañolFecha de publicación
2016
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El principal objetivo de esta investigación fue la verificación de la universalidad de la distribución gamma inversa de tres parámetros propuesta por Malamud et al. (2004) para representar la frecuencia de las áreas de los deslizamientos en una región y como varia ésta a causa de las intervenciones antrópicas. Para verificar la validez de esta distribución se levantó un inventario de deslizamientos en la conexión vial Guillermo Gaviria Correa y en un ancho aferente a esta vía de 1,5 km, diferenciando entre los ocurridos en taludes viales y en laderas rurales. Los deslizamientos fueron identificados mediante una técnica de interpretación visual de imágenes de satélite de alta resolución disponibles en Google Earth®; estos inventarios son importantes porque constituyen la base para cuantificar el impacto de los mismos en una escala regional y como elementos para la mitigación del riesgo en el futuro. El análisis estadístico y de frecuencias para el inventario recolectado muestra dos hechos fundamentales, el primero es que la distribución de frecuencias obtenida se asemeja en forma a la distribución teórica, y segundo que se presenta un mejor ajuste para las áreas mayores a 631 m2 y un aumento en la frecuencia para las áreas menores a este valor, asociado a la generación de nuevos deslizamientos producto de la construcción de carreteras
Abstract: The main objective of this research was the verification of the universality of the inverse gamma distribution of three parameters proposed by Malamud et al. (2004) to represent the frequency of landslide areas in a region and how this varies due to anthropogenic interventions. In order to verify the validity of this distribution, an inventory of landslides was created in the Guillermo Gaviria Correa roadway and in a width afferent to this road of 1.5 km, differentiating between those occurred in road slopes and in rural slopes. Slides were identified using a visual interpretation technique of high-resolution satellite images available in Google Earth®; These inventories are important because they form the basis for quantifying their impact on a regional scale and as elements for risk mitigation in the future. The statistical and frequency analysis for the collected inventory shows two fundamental facts, the first is that the frequency distribution obtained is similar to the theoretical distribution, and secondly, a better fit is presented for areas greater than 631 m2 and one Increase in frequency for areas smaller than this value, associated with the generation of new landslides resulting from the construction of roads
Abstract: The main objective of this research was the verification of the universality of the inverse gamma distribution of three parameters proposed by Malamud et al. (2004) to represent the frequency of landslide areas in a region and how this varies due to anthropogenic interventions. In order to verify the validity of this distribution, an inventory of landslides was created in the Guillermo Gaviria Correa roadway and in a width afferent to this road of 1.5 km, differentiating between those occurred in road slopes and in rural slopes. Slides were identified using a visual interpretation technique of high-resolution satellite images available in Google Earth®; These inventories are important because they form the basis for quantifying their impact on a regional scale and as elements for risk mitigation in the future. The statistical and frequency analysis for the collected inventory shows two fundamental facts, the first is that the frequency distribution obtained is similar to the theoretical distribution, and secondly, a better fit is presented for areas greater than 631 m2 and one Increase in frequency for areas smaller than this value, associated with the generation of new landslides resulting from the construction of roads