Estimación de la probabilidad de ocurrencia de movimientos en masa en Colombia a partir de relaciones magnitud-frecuencia
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Calvachi Molina, Andrés Felipe
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El presente proyecto final de maestría pretende establecer la relación entre la magnitud y la frecuencia de los movimientos en masa históricos en el territorio colombiano. Lo anterior, con el fin de conocer, a partir de datos reales inventariados, el orden de magnitud y las características principales de los movimientos en masa que ocurren en Colombia y poder establecer probabilidades de ocurrencia de eventos de determinada magnitud. Para ello, se utilizó la base de datos disponible en la plataforma SIMMA (6276 datos de movimientos en masa). Cada uno de estos datos fue extraído, organizado y procesado para consolidar un inventario con las características principales de cada movimiento en masa. Este inventario fue el insumo para realizar el análisis estadístico y probabilístico y establecer las relaciones magnitud- frecuencia y las funciones de probabilidad que las describen a partir del ajuste de los datos observados a distribuciones de probabilidad conocidas. Adicionalmente, a partir de la información consignada en el inventario, se realizó un análisis de daños, generando curvas de daño que permiten conocer la probabilidad de que un movimiento en masa de una magnitud en específico genere un determinado nivel de daño. Todo este procedimiento se sintetizó y se programó en una hoja de cálculo de EXCEL, hoja que permite conocer las diferentes estadísticas y probabilidades para cada una de las regiones analizadas al seleccionar alguna de ellas de manera rápida y sencilla. Adicionalmente, la hoja de EXCEL permite alimentar el inventario constantemente para que, así mismo, las estadísticas y probabilidades se vayan actualizando y ajustando a los nuevos datos. Del análisis magnitud-frecuencia por regiones, se encontró que, de acuerdo con los datos utilizados, los movimientos en masa en las diferentes regiones del país analizadas siguen una distribución normal si la escala horizontal (magnitud) se transforma a escala logarítmica. Eventos de magnitudes pequeñas tienen bajas frecuencias quizá debido a que no son reportados por la dificultad de identificarlos ya que estos, en un periodo corto de tiempo, se ocultan por acción de la naturaleza. El factor detonante más frecuente en el país son las lluvias, debido al carácter tropical que tiene el clima en Colombia y que causa inestabilidad en las laderas al aumentar el nivel freático. La región Caldas-Risaralda-Quindío presenta movimientos en masa con magnitud promedio de 112.500 m3 siendo así la región con el mayor valor de magnitud promedio. Así mismo, es la región, junto con Santander-Norte de Santander y Orinoquía, que tiene las mayores probabilidades de que se presente un movimiento en masa de determinada magnitud.
Abstract: The present master's degree project aims to establish the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of historical slope movements in Colombian territory, in order to know, from real inventoried data, the order of magnitude and the main characteristics of slope movements that occur in Colombia and to be able to establish probabilities of occurrence of events of a certain magnitude. For this, the database available on the SIMMA platform (6276 mass movement data) was used. Each of these data was extracted, organized and processed to consolidate an inventory with the main characteristics of each slope movement. This inventory was the input to perform the statistical and probabilistic analysis and establish the magnitude-frequency relationships and the probability functions that describe them from the adjustment of the observed data to known probability distributions. Additionally, from the information included in the inventory, a damage analysis was carried out, generating damage curves that allow knowing the probability that a slope movement of a specific magnitude will generate a certain level of damage. All this procedure was synthesized and programmed in an EXCEL spreadsheet, a sheet that allows to know the different statistics and probabilities for each of the analyzed regions by selecting some of them quickly and easily. Additionally, the EXCEL sheet allows to feed the inventory constantly so that, likewise, the statistics and probabilities are updated and adjusted to the new data. From the magnitude-frequency analysis by regions, it was found that, according to the data used, the slope movements in the different regions of the country analyzed follow a normal distribution if the horizontal scale (magnitude) is transformed to a logarithmic scale. Events of small magnitudes have low frequencies, perhaps because they are not reported due to the difficulty of identifying them, since these, in a short period of time, are hidden by nature's action. The most frequent detonating factor in the country are the rains, due to the tropical nature of the climate in Colombia and causing instability in the hillsides when the water table increases. The Caldas-Risaralda-Quindío region presents slope movements with an average magnitude of 112,500 m3, thus being the region with the highest average magnitude value. Likewise, it is the region, together with Santander-Norte de Santander and Orinoquía, which is most likely to have a mass movement of a certain magnitude.
Abstract: The present master's degree project aims to establish the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of historical slope movements in Colombian territory, in order to know, from real inventoried data, the order of magnitude and the main characteristics of slope movements that occur in Colombia and to be able to establish probabilities of occurrence of events of a certain magnitude. For this, the database available on the SIMMA platform (6276 mass movement data) was used. Each of these data was extracted, organized and processed to consolidate an inventory with the main characteristics of each slope movement. This inventory was the input to perform the statistical and probabilistic analysis and establish the magnitude-frequency relationships and the probability functions that describe them from the adjustment of the observed data to known probability distributions. Additionally, from the information included in the inventory, a damage analysis was carried out, generating damage curves that allow knowing the probability that a slope movement of a specific magnitude will generate a certain level of damage. All this procedure was synthesized and programmed in an EXCEL spreadsheet, a sheet that allows to know the different statistics and probabilities for each of the analyzed regions by selecting some of them quickly and easily. Additionally, the EXCEL sheet allows to feed the inventory constantly so that, likewise, the statistics and probabilities are updated and adjusted to the new data. From the magnitude-frequency analysis by regions, it was found that, according to the data used, the slope movements in the different regions of the country analyzed follow a normal distribution if the horizontal scale (magnitude) is transformed to a logarithmic scale. Events of small magnitudes have low frequencies, perhaps because they are not reported due to the difficulty of identifying them, since these, in a short period of time, are hidden by nature's action. The most frequent detonating factor in the country are the rains, due to the tropical nature of the climate in Colombia and causing instability in the hillsides when the water table increases. The Caldas-Risaralda-Quindío region presents slope movements with an average magnitude of 112,500 m3, thus being the region with the highest average magnitude value. Likewise, it is the region, together with Santander-Norte de Santander and Orinoquía, which is most likely to have a mass movement of a certain magnitude.