Impacto del cambio climático y de los cambios del uso del suelo en los caudales de la cuenca del río Frío

Abstract

Con el objetivo de analizar el impacto del cambio climático y el cambio de los usos del suelo en la cuenca del río se Frío, localizada en la parte alta de la cuenca del río Bogotá, se estimaron los caudales en la estación Puente La Virginia hasta el año 2030. Los análisis se desarrollaron bajo escenarios de cambio climático y proyección de usos del suelo implementando el modelo hidrológico SWAT en la plataforma ArcSWAT y un modelo de autómata celular con la herramienta MOLUSCE de QGIS.

Abstract: In order to analyze the impact of climate change and the change in land uses in the basin of the Frio River, located in the upper part of the Bogota river, the flows at the Puente La Virginia station were estimated until 2030. The analyses were developed under climate change scenarios and land-use projection implementing the SWAT hydrological model on the ArcSWAT platform and a cellular automaton model with The QGIS MOLUSCE tool. The impacts analyzed focused on determining how the projection of land uses and the projection of the precipitation regime under climate change scenarios could eventually affect the flow regime in terms of the shortage index of the Rio Frio basin until the Puente La Virginia station, this is the point where there are hydrometric information. The MIROC-ESM global circulation model for scenario RCP 4.5, represented adequately the flow rates of the basin, compared to the CCSM4 and IPSL CM5A – LR models. The implementation of the cellular automata model was developed from the training of a neural network based on the historical information collected, finding that the main change in use was from agriculture to pastures. The impact of climate change and the change in land uses in the projected flows of the Rio Frio basin, at Puente La Virginia Station, are associated with increased flows compared to recorded historical ones. It means that it could be peaks of flow that have not been registered until today. It could be happen by the increase of precipitation at the upper part of the basin.