Modelamiento y simulación de mercados de carbono en Colombia como estrategia de mitigación al Cambio Climático
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Nevado Velásquez, Sebastián
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El cambio climático es uno de los principales efectos de la actividad humana que ha generado problemáticas como el derretimiento de glaciares, aumento del nivel del mar, entre otros; este se presenta debido a los gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) generados que se acumulan, dando origen a una capa que retiene la radiación aumentando la temperatura de la superficie. Debido a lo anterior, se ha realizado acuerdos internacionales como el reciente Acuerdo de Paris, donde los países se comprometen a disminuir sus emisiones, para reducir los efectos del cambio climático. Colombia se comprometió a reducir en un 20% sus emisiones al 2030 con respecto al escenario tendencial. Una alternativa es la implementación de un mercado de carbono intersectorial para cumplir dicha meta, con cuotas obligatorias y donde se promueva la implementación de desarrollo limpio en cada uno de los sectores industriales del país. En esta tesis se plantea un modelo en dinámica de sistemas que permita estudiar alternativas de diseño del mercado de carbono tipo ETS, que se analiza con diferentes escenarios tales como precio de bonos inicial alto, penalidad alta y combinación de ambas. Las simulaciones evidencian una reducción de las emisiones cercanas al 3% en los escenarios base y con precio de bonos alto, y, una reducción superior al 20% prometido en las últimas dos políticas, siendo más efectivas los últimos dos escenarios para una futura implementación. Se encuentra una alta influencia en el valor de la penalidad en el rendimiento del sistema, volviendo más atractiva la inversión en proyectos permanentes y, por ende, mayor reducción de emisiones.
Abstract: Climate change is one of the main effects of human activity that has generated problems such as the melting of glaciers, rising sea levels, among others; This occurs due to greenhouse gases (GHG) generated that accumulate, giving rise to a layer that retains the radiation by increasing the surface temperature. Due to the above, international agreements have been made such as the recent Paris Agreement, where countries commit to reduce their emissions, to reduce the effects of climate change. Colombia undertook to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2030 concerning the trend scenario. An alternative is the implementation of an intersectoral carbon market to meet this goal, with mandatory quotas and where the implementation of clean development is promoted in each of the country's industrial sectors. This thesis proposes a model in systems dynamics that allows the study of type ETS carbon market design alternatives, which is analyzed with different scenarios such as high initial bond price, high penalty, and a combination of both. The simulations show a reduction of emissions close to 3% in the base scenarios and with a high bond price, and a reduction of over 20% promised in the last two policies, with the last two scenarios being more effective for future implementation. There is a high influence on the value of the penalty on the performance of the system, investing in permanent projects more attractive and, therefore, greater reduction of emissions.
Abstract: Climate change is one of the main effects of human activity that has generated problems such as the melting of glaciers, rising sea levels, among others; This occurs due to greenhouse gases (GHG) generated that accumulate, giving rise to a layer that retains the radiation by increasing the surface temperature. Due to the above, international agreements have been made such as the recent Paris Agreement, where countries commit to reduce their emissions, to reduce the effects of climate change. Colombia undertook to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2030 concerning the trend scenario. An alternative is the implementation of an intersectoral carbon market to meet this goal, with mandatory quotas and where the implementation of clean development is promoted in each of the country's industrial sectors. This thesis proposes a model in systems dynamics that allows the study of type ETS carbon market design alternatives, which is analyzed with different scenarios such as high initial bond price, high penalty, and a combination of both. The simulations show a reduction of emissions close to 3% in the base scenarios and with a high bond price, and a reduction of over 20% promised in the last two policies, with the last two scenarios being more effective for future implementation. There is a high influence on the value of the penalty on the performance of the system, investing in permanent projects more attractive and, therefore, greater reduction of emissions.