Estimación de un sistema casi ideal de demanda : gasto en consumo de alimentos agrícolas en Colombia

Abstract

Este trabajo de grado propone un Sistema Casi Ideal de Demanda en su forma lineal LA-AIDS para analizar las divisiones de gasto de los hogares colombianos entre 2005 a 2023, con un enfoque particular en el gasto agrícola durante el periodo 2018–2024. Este sector representó, en promedio, una quinta parte del gasto total de los hogares colombianos. Se estimaron elasticidades del gasto, de precio-propio y precio-cruzado, lo que permitió caracterizar la sensibilidad del consumo frente a variaciones en el ingreso y en los precios relativos. Los resultados muestran que las divisiones de gasto presentan elasticidades unitarias del gasto, lo que indica que se trata de bienes normales respecto al ingreso. Las elasticidades precio-propio fueron negativas y las elasticidades precio-cruzado positivas en concordancia con la teoría económica. En el caso del rubro agrícola, se identificaron patrones de elasticidad diferenciados: algunos grupos mostraron ser elásticos (Granos, Lácteos, Tubérculos), otros inelásticos (Verduras), y se observaron interacciones relevantes entre alimentos clave, como la sustitución entre Carnes y Pescados, y la complementariedad entre Carnes, Granos y Procesados (Texto tomado de la fuente).

This paper proposes a Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System LA-AIDS to analyze the expenditure patterns of Colombian households between 2005 and 2023, with a particular focus on agricultural expenditure during the period 2018–2024. This sector accounted, on average, for one-fifth of total household spending in Colombia. Expenditure elasticities, as well as price-own and price-cross elasticities, were estimated, which allowed for the characterization of the sensitivity of consumption to changes in income and relative prices. The results show that the expenditure divisions have unitary elasticities of expenditure, indicating that these are normal goods with respect to income. Own-price elasticities were negative and cross-price elasticities were positive, in line with economic theory. In the agricultural sector, differentiated elasticity patterns were identified: some groups were found to be elastic (Grains, Dairy, Tubers), while others were inelastic (Vegetables), and significant interactions were observed between key foods, such as substitution between Meat and Fish, and complementarity between Meat, Grains, and Processed Foods.