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Predictores sociodemográficos, delictivos, penitenciarios y de salud mental sobre la reincidencia criminal en población exreclusa colombiana

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dc.contributor.advisorRuíz Pérez, José Ignacio
dc.contributor.authorQuintero Cárdenas, Carlos José
dc.contributor.cvlacQuintero Cárdenas Carlos José [0001612414]
dc.contributor.googlescholarQuintero Cárdenas Carlos José [YNu1dIkAAAAJ&hl=es]
dc.contributor.googlescholarRuíz Pérez José Ignacio [f-859YoAAAAJ&hl=es]
dc.contributor.orcidQuintero Cárdenas Carlos José [0000-0003-1390-014X]
dc.contributor.orcidRuíz Pérez José Ignacio [0000-0002-8996-9736]
dc.contributor.researchgateQuintero Cárdenas Carlos José [Carlos-Jose-Quintero-Cardenas]
dc.contributor.researchgateRuíz Pérez José Ignacio [Jose-Perez-40]
dc.coverage.countryColombia
dc.coverage.tgnhttp://vocab.getty.edu/page/tgn/1000050
dc.date.accessioned2026-03-26T19:55:49Z
dc.date.available2026-03-26T19:55:49Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.descriptionilustraciones principalmente a color, diagramas, tablasspa
dc.description.abstractLas estadísticas de la criminalidad, su permanencia e incremento en el tiempo, y las consecuencias que se reportan como derivadas, constituyen como imperativo, abordar el fenómeno de la reincidencia criminal y las posibilidades de su predicción desde distintos factores. Para esto, se estableció como objetivo establecer las variables sociodemográficas, delictivas, penitenciarias y/o de salud mental que predicen la reincidencia criminal en personas exreclusas colombianas. Para establecerlas, se diseñó una metodología de tipo cuantitativo, que cuenta con un diseño que combina un diseño predictivo transversal con un diseño predictivo longitudinal. Se contó con la participación de 532 exreclusos colombianos, quienes se encontraban en libertad por pena cumplida o por libertad condicional. A la totalidad de la muestra se le administró un cuestionario de datos sociodemográficos, delictivos y penitenciarios; además de un total de 11 instrumentos relacionados a variables específicas de salud mental. Se les realizó un seguimiento por 5 años posteriores a la toma de datos para el registro de la reincidencia tanto penal como penitenciaria. Para el procesamiento de los datos, se llevaron a cabo métodos estadísticos univariados, bivariados y multivariados. Como resultados, se obtuvo la caracterización general de la muestra con respecto a variables sociodemográficas, delictivas, penitenciarias y de salud mental, las particularidades que se presentaron por sexo, y las variables que predijeron la reincidencia criminal futura y que explicaron la reincidencia criminal previa. Finalmente, se discuten los resultados con respecto a la realidad penitenciaria nacional e internacional. (Texto tomado de la fuente)spa
dc.description.abstractThe statistics on crime, its persistence and increase over time, and the reported consequences thereof make it imperative to address the phenomenon of criminal recidivism and the possibilities of predicting it based on different factors. To this end, the aim was to establish the sociodemographic, criminal, prison, and/or mental health variables that predict criminal recidivism in former Colombian prisoners. To establish these variables, a quantitative methodology was designed, combining a cross-sectional predictive design with a longitudinal predictive design. A total of 532 former Colombian prisoners participated in the study, all of whom were free after serving their sentences or on parole. The entire sample was given a questionnaire on sociodemographic, criminal, and prison data, as well as a total of 11 instruments related to specific mental health variables. They were followed up for 5 years after data collection to record both criminal and prison recidivism. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate statistical methods were used to process the data. The results provided a general characterization of the sample with respect to sociodemographic, criminal, prison, and mental health variables, the particularities that arose by sex, and the variables that predicted future criminal recidivism and explained previous criminal recidivism. Finally, the results are discussed in relation to the national and international prison reality.eng
dc.description.degreelevelDoctorado
dc.description.degreenameDoctor en Psicología
dc.description.methodsTipo de investigación El tipo de investigación es cuantitativo, ya que su objetivo principal correspondió con poner a prueba teorías objetivas a partir de las relaciones entre variables (reincidencia criminal y características sociodemográficas, delictivas, penitenciarias y de salud mental) (Creswell y Creswell, 2022; Neuman, 2014). Cada una de estas variables fueron medidas y analizadas a través de instrumentos que permitieron la recolección numérica de datos y el posterior análisis estadístico de los mismos (Creswell y Creswell, 2022). Para el desarrollo de la investigación se tuvo como punto de partida la comprobación empírica y deductiva de teorías; es decir, se partió de teorías o supuestos teóricos generales frente a la explicación del comportamiento criminal y su reincidencia, para luego, a través de un diseño estructurado, establecer hipótesis con base a estas, y recolectar datos que permitieran contrastarlas y establecer conclusiones relacionadas con la pregunta problema inicialmente establecida (Babbie, 2020; Creswell y Creswell, 2022). Este procedimiento, el cual también se describe a mayor detalle más adelante, se realizó con el objetivo de garantizar criterios generales de objetividad, replicación, falsabilidad, transparencia y sistematicidad. Diseño de investigación Se implementó un diseño de tipo mixto no experimental; es decir, que combina un diseño predictivo transversal con un diseño predictivo longitudinal (Ato et al., 2013). Inicialmente se estableció un diseño de tipo predictivo transversal dado que, bajo una estrategia asociativa, se contó con una variable criterio (reincidencia criminal histórica o pasada), la cual se evaluó en su relación funcional con variables predictoras (características sociodemográficas, delictivas, penitenciarias y de salud mental) registradas en un único momento del tiempo una vez la muestra poblacional se encontraba en libertad (Ato et al., 2013). Posteriormente, se utilizó y se integró para el análisis de la información recolectada un diseño de tipo longitudinal, también predictivo, que permitió el análisis relacional y funcional de una variable criterio (reincidencia en libertad posterior al encarcelamiento y prisionización) registrada en seguimiento de 5 años con variables identificadas para el presente estudio como predictoras (características sociodemográficas, delictivas, penitenciarias y de salud mental), y que fueron, en su mayoría, registradas una vez las personas se encontraron en libertad (Ato et al., 2013). Participantes Se contó con la participación de 532 personas (394 hombres y 138 mujeres) que estuvieron recluidas y condenadas en establecimientos de reclusión del orden nacional y que se encontraban radicados en la ciudad de Bogotá al momento de la recolección de datos. La totalidad de la muestra se seleccionó a partir de un muestreo no probabilístico intencional, y se excluyeron del estudio a aquellas personas que estuvieron recluidas en calidad de sindicados (medidas preventivas) y que contaban con alguna enfermedad neurodegenerativa y/o trastorno psicológico que les impidió responder de los instrumentos de evaluación. Para las personas que hicieron parte de la muestra y que reportaron un bajo nivel educativo, la aplicación de los instrumentos se realizó de forma guiada por el evaluador con el fin de garantizar un adecuado diligenciamiento de cada uno de los ítems o reactivos. La totalidad de los participantes, al momento de la toma de datos, se encontraban dando inicio al proceso de acompañamiento penitenciario por parte del programa distrital denominado: Casa Libertad . Ninguno había ya contado con intervención por parte del convenio y sus profesionales, pero si se encontraban bajo registro e inicio de su acompañamiento. Es importante aclarar que el acompañamiento postpenitenciario, para Colombia, no es obligatorio, sino voluntario, lo que refiere que los participantes de forma individual decidieron participar del convenio y sus servicios. Una descripción más detallada y completa de la muestra se realiza en la sección de resultados, en uno de sus primeros apartados en donde se describen las principales características sociodemográficas, delictivas y penitenciarias. Instrumentos Para el desarrollo de la presente investigación se utilizó una ficha de datos sociodemográficos, delictivos y penitenciarios construida por el investigador principal; además de un total de 11 instrumentos de evaluación psicológica que permiten recolectar información sobre variables de salud mental: 1) Cuestionario de 90 síntomas (SCL-90R) (González, 2002); 2) Examen Internacional de los Trastornos de la Personalidad (IPDE) (OMS, 1996); 3) Cuestionario de Ansiedad Estado-Rasgo (STAI) (Buela-Casal et al., 2015); 4) Inventario de Depresión Estado-Rasgo (IDER) (Buela-Casal y Agudelo, 2008); 5) Escala de Bienestar Psicológico de Ryff (Díaz., 2006); 6) Cuestionario sobre Calidad de vida: Satisfacción y Placer (Q-LES-Q) (Endicott et al., 2011); 7) Cuestionario de Autoconcepto AF-5 (García y Musitu, 2014); 8) Escala de Autoeficacia Generalizada (Baessler y Schwarcer, 1996); 9) Escala de Estrés Percibido (PSS) (Remor, 2006); 10) Escala de Estrategias de Coping-Modificada (EEC-M) (Londoño et al., 2006); y 11) Escala Multidimensional de Apoyo Social Percibido (MSPSS) (Zimet et al., 1988). Procedimiento En la primera fase de la investigación, se seleccionaron a los participantes de acuerdo a los criterios de inclusión y exclusión establecidos por el investigador. En la segunda fase, se realizó la aplicación de los instrumentos de evaluación seleccionados y la recolección de datos, la cual se llevó a cabo de forma individual; en medio magnético, en dos sesiones por participante, con una duración aproximada de 1 hora y media por participante. En la tercera, se realizó un seguimiento anual, por el periodo de cinco años, para determinar si se presentaron cambios en su situación jurídica y si participaron nuevamente en la comisión de delitos, posterior a la evaluación psicológica. La primera información, esto es, el cambio en su situación jurídica, se obtuvo a partir de la base de datos Sistematización Integral del Sistema Penitenciario y Carcelario (SISIPEC), del INPEC, y del sistema de información de la Rama Judicial de la República de Colombia, con el fin de verificar si cada participante estuvo de nuevo o no procesado y/o condenado por la comisión de un delito, lo que permitirá determinar la variable principal a predecir: reincidencia de tipo penal (procesos por delitos) y reincidencia penitenciaria (ingresos a cárceles). Finalmente, para la cuarta etapa, se realizó el procesamiento estadístico de los datos, el análisis de la información, el contraste de hipótesis, y la construcción del informe final de resultados. Análisis de datos Para el análisis de datos, se utilizó el entorno de desarrollo integrado Rsudio (Versión: 2025.05.1+513), y se desarrollaron estadísticos descriptivos y de frecuencias (paquetes: psych, dplyr, tidyverse, descr y summarytools) para las variables sociodemográficas, delictivas y penitenciarias; así como también, para las puntuaciones de cada uno de los instrumentos de evaluación psicológica, con el fin de describir los factores de salud mental de la muestra total y por sexo. Para examinar la calidad de los instrumentos utilizados se realizó un análisis de la consistencia interna a partir del coeficiente Alfa de Cronbach y el coeficiente Omega (politómicos y dicotómicos) (paquete: psych). Para determinar las particularidades por sexo se implementaron análisis de comparación de medias (t de Student) o medianas (U de Mann-Whitney) de acuerdo a los principios de normalidad y homocedasticidad (paquetes: stats y car). Seguido, se realizaron análisis de tipo predictivo con las variables sociodemográficas, delictivas, penitenciarias y de salud mental en relación con la reincidencia criminal (Regresiones Logísticas Penalizadas – Elastic Net [Lasso y Ridge]) (paquetes: glmnet y caret). Posteriormente, se realizó el levantamiento y construcción de indicadores a partir de análisis multivariados exploratorios, tales como, el Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP) para las variables numéricas, y el Análisis de Correspondencias Múltiples (ACM) para las variables de tipo categórico (paquetes: psych, stats, factoMineR y factoextra). Luego, se establecieron modelos de ecuaciones estructurales (SEM) y de regresión logística binaria para la posible relación entre los indicadores resultantes y la variable de reincidencia (paquetes: lavaan, semTools, psych, stats, boot). Los modelos de regresión logística binaria se implementaron en grupos muestrales más pequeños seleccionados aleatoriamente mediante el método Bootstrap de la muestra total (muestreo Bootstrap con reemplazo). Por último, se realizaron frecuencias absolutas y relativas, el test de Chi-cuadrado de Pearson, y la V de Cramer para evaluar el tamaño del efecto de las posibles asociaciones para las variables categóricas de reincidencia (previa y futura) (paquetes: base R y DescTools), matrices de correlación entre factores generales (Coeficiente de correlación de Pearson) (paquetes: base R y psych), y análisis factoriales de segundo orden (Análisis Factorial Jerárquico) (paquetes: psych, GPArotation, lavaan y semTools) que permitieron establecer las relaciones y una estructura jerárquica entre los indicadores.
dc.description.researchareaPsicología jurídica
dc.format.extent228 páginas
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.instnameUniversidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.identifier.reponameRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.identifier.repourlhttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/spa
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/89787
dc.language.isospa
dc.publisherUniversidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.publisher.branchUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá
dc.publisher.departmentDepartamento de Psicologíaspa
dc.publisher.facultyFacultad de Ciencias Humanas
dc.publisher.placeBogotá, Colombia
dc.publisher.programBogotá - Ciencias Humanas - Doctorado en Psicología
dc.relation.indexedBireme
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dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.licenseReconocimiento 4.0 Internacional
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.ddc150 - Psicología::158 - Psicología aplicada
dc.subject.proposalPredicciónspa
dc.subject.proposalReincidencia criminalspa
dc.subject.proposalExreclusospa
dc.subject.proposalSalud mentalspa
dc.subject.proposalPredictioneng
dc.subject.proposalCriminal recidivismeng
dc.subject.proposalFormer prisonereng
dc.subject.proposalMental healtheng
dc.subject.unescoCriminologíaspa
dc.subject.unescoCriminologyeng
dc.subject.unescoAnálisis estadísticospa
dc.subject.unescoStatistical analysiseng
dc.subject.unescoDelincuenciaspa
dc.subject.unescoDelinquencyeng
dc.titlePredictores sociodemográficos, delictivos, penitenciarios y de salud mental sobre la reincidencia criminal en población exreclusa colombianaspa
dc.title.translatedSociodemographic, criminal, penitentiary, and mental health predictors of criminal recidivism among the Colombian ex-prisoner populationeng
dc.typeTrabajo de grado - Doctorado
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06
dc.type.coarversionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.contentDataPaper
dc.type.contentText
dc.type.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
dc.type.redcolhttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TD
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentEstudiantes
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentGrupos comunitarios
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentInvestigadores
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentPúblico general
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentAdultos
oaire.accessrightshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2

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