The influence of urban built environment on traffic collisions that involved motorcycles at the macro-level scale

Abstract

Traffic congestion, high transit transportation prices, and e-commerce in urban areas have boosted Powered Two and Three-Wheelers (PTW) use in low to middle-income countries. Particularly, motorcycles have become popular among low socio-economic populations, given easy access to finance and low maintenance costs. This vulnerable road user plays an important role in traffic road safety, although it remains understudied. Therefore, understanding the factors influencing motorcycle-related crash severity is relevant to bridging the road safety research gap. To do so, a case study in Medellin, Colombia, was conducted to determine the main contributing factors of the built environment to motorcyclerelated crash frequency. Geostatistics and spatial econometric models were computed to compare property damage (PD) and injured/death (ID) outputs of motorcycle– vehicle collisions between 2015 and 2018. Moran’s I and Lagrange Multiplier statistic results suggest the spatial autocorrelation of the data, thus the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) was used to model and forecast motorcycle–related collisions at the macro – level scale. Lowstatus areas are associated with 16.2% and 19.0% lower PD and ID collision rates, respectively, while high-status showed a 21.0% reduction in ID collisions. In contrast, highmixture areas correspond to 27.2% and 21.2% higher PD and ID collision rates. Regarding road infrastructure, longer main roads are linked to 14.8% and 15.6% increases in PD and ID collisions, while 4-legged intersections are associated with a 20.4% rise in ID collisions. Additionally, a higher number of establishments corresponds to 42.3% and 29.2% increases in PD and ID collisions. (Tomado de la fuente)

El auge del comercio electrónico, la congestión vehicular y los costos del transporte público han incrementado el uso de motocicletas en países de ingresos medios-bajos, especialmente en poblaciones de bajos recursos por su fácil financiamiento y bajo costo de mantenimiento. A pesar de su vulnerabilidad en seguridad vial, su estudio ha sido limitado a nivel municipal. Con el fin de reducir esta brecha, se analizó Medellín, Colombia, para identificar los factores del ambiente construido asociados con la ocurrencia y severidad de choque de motocicletas entre 2015 y 2018. Se aplicaron técnicas geoespaciales y modelos econométricos para comparar colisiones solo daños (SD) y lesionados/fallecidos (LF). El índice de Moran y los multiplicadores de Lagrange sugieren autocorrelación, por lo tanto, el modelo espacial de Durbin se implementó para su análisis y predicción. Los resultados sugieren que las áreas de alto estrato socioeconómico se asocian con 21.0% menos colisiones LF, mientras que áreas de bajo estrato socioeconómico presentan 16.2% y 19.0% menos colisiones SD y LF, respectivamente. En contraste, áreas de alta mixtura muestran incrementos de 27.2% y 21.2% en SD y LF. Con respecto a la infraestructura vial, la longitud de las arterias se vincula con aumentos del 14.8% y 15.6% en SD y LF, mientras que las intersecciones de cuatro ramas se asocian con un aumento del 20.4% en LF. Además, mayor cantidad de establecimientos comerciales corresponde a incrementos del 42.3% and 29.2% colisiones SD y LF.