Metodología para la búsqueda de consenso en toma de decisiones grupales multicriterio (MCGDM). Caso de estudio en gestión ambiental
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Romero Gelvez, Jorge Ivan
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La toma de decisiones grupal busca agregar opiniones de varios individuos en una decisión consensuada. Muchos autores coinciden en que nuestra sociedad moderna es en esencia un problema de decisiones grupal. El conflicto en este tipo de decisiones se presenta debido a la asimetría de información presente en las motivaciones y actitudes de cada miembro del grupo mientras se intenta llegar a una decisión grupal agregada. Esta tesis presenta un aporte original al proponer una metodología novedosa para búsqueda de consenso suave (El consenso bajo un cierto grado de acuerdo) en decisiones grupales CGDM, incluyendo la medición y análisis de influencias entre ellos como herramienta para asesorar el cambio de sus preferencias y persuadir a los expertos en situaciones con alta discordancia. Mediante el desarrollo de dos estudios de caso, esta tesis propone un método para reducir las inconsistencias en las matrices de comparación por pares utilizando un algoritmo de censo de tríadas. Además, el documento presenta dos métodos para calcular el peso de los decisores: el primero a través del cálculo de la influencia con una medida de centralidad inversa normalizada, obtenida del tema formal del análisis de redes sociales. El segundo, a través de la modificación sobre la medida de influencia propuesta en el método DEMATEL.
Group decision making seeks to add opinions for several individuals in a consensual decision. Many authors agree that our modern society is essentially a problem of group decisions. The conflict in this type of decisions arises due to the symmetry of information present in the motivations and attitudes of each member of the group while trying to reach an aggregate group decision. This thesis presents an original contribution by proposing a novel methodology to seek soft consensus (The consensus under a certain degree of consensus) in CGDM group decisions, including the measurement and analysis of influences between them as a tool to advise the change of their preferences and persuade experts in situations with high discordance. Through the development of two case studies, this thesis proposes a method for reducing inconsistencies in pairwise comparison matrices using a triad census algorithm. Additionally, the document introduces two methods for calculating the weight of decision-makers: the first through the calculation of influence with a normalized inverse centrality measure, obtained from the formal topic of social network analysis. The second one, through the modification over the influence measure proposed in the DEMATEL method.
Group decision making seeks to add opinions for several individuals in a consensual decision. Many authors agree that our modern society is essentially a problem of group decisions. The conflict in this type of decisions arises due to the symmetry of information present in the motivations and attitudes of each member of the group while trying to reach an aggregate group decision. This thesis presents an original contribution by proposing a novel methodology to seek soft consensus (The consensus under a certain degree of consensus) in CGDM group decisions, including the measurement and analysis of influences between them as a tool to advise the change of their preferences and persuade experts in situations with high discordance. Through the development of two case studies, this thesis proposes a method for reducing inconsistencies in pairwise comparison matrices using a triad census algorithm. Additionally, the document introduces two methods for calculating the weight of decision-makers: the first through the calculation of influence with a normalized inverse centrality measure, obtained from the formal topic of social network analysis. The second one, through the modification over the influence measure proposed in the DEMATEL method.