Efecto de la tasa de cambio sobre el área cultivada de coca de Colombia
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Orjuela Santodomingo, Sergio Miguel
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El presente trabajo busca determinar el efecto de la tasa de cambio sobre el área cultivada con coca en Colombia, entre los años 2003 y el 2017 a nivel de municipios. La cocaína es un producto exportable cuyo principal mercado mundial son los Estados Unidos, por lo que la depreciación (apreciación) del peso colombiano frente al dólar aumenta (disminuye) los ingresos que reciben los narcotraficantes, incrementando (reduciendo) la demanda de coca y por lo tanto ampliando (aminorando) las áreas con coca. La estimación es realizada por medio del Método Generalizado de Momentos en Sistemas (GMM-SYS), comprobándose que hay un efecto positivo entre el valor del dólar en pesos colombianos y los cultivos coca.
Abstract: This research seeks to find out the effect of the exchange rate on the area under coca cultivation in Colombia between 2003 and 2017 at municipal level. Cocaine is an exportable product whose main market is in the United States, so the depreciation (appreciation) of the Colombian peso against the dollar increases (decreases) the income received by drug traffickers, increasing (reducing) the demand for coca and therefore expanding (reducing) coca crops. The estimation was carried out using the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS). Results suggest that there is a positive effect between the dollar value in Colombian pesos and coca crops.
Abstract: This research seeks to find out the effect of the exchange rate on the area under coca cultivation in Colombia between 2003 and 2017 at municipal level. Cocaine is an exportable product whose main market is in the United States, so the depreciation (appreciation) of the Colombian peso against the dollar increases (decreases) the income received by drug traffickers, increasing (reducing) the demand for coca and therefore expanding (reducing) coca crops. The estimation was carried out using the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS). Results suggest that there is a positive effect between the dollar value in Colombian pesos and coca crops.