Determinantes de la densidad de contribución, tasas de reemplazo y transición en el sistema pensional colombiano
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Esta investigación analiza los determinantes de la densidad de cotización y las tasas de transición en Colombia. Se implementa un modelo lineal, ordinal para explicar los factores que afectan el nivel de densidad de cotización y las tasas de reemplazo. Como insumo se utiliza la Encuesta Longitudinal de Protección Social del año 2012 con información de 7,712 individuos dentro de la población económicamente activa y la Encuesta Longitudinal de la Universidad de los Andes del 2013 y 2016. Los resultados muestran que en promedio los colombianos no cotizan la mitad de su vida laboral, equivalente a 7 años. Las variables socioeconómicas relacionadas con su nivel de cotización son la experiencia, el sexo, la educación y el estado civil. Adicionalmente, se encuentra que el crecimiento económico genera un impacto significativo en la trayectoria laboral, como en el caso de los empleados que iniciaron su primer empleo desde de 1999. Ellos evidencian una densidad de cotización 4% menor que sus pares que iniciaron su primer empleo en el año 1995. Entre otros resultados relevantes, se aprecia que el 20% de los ocupados no tienen el mínimo de semanas cotizadas requeridas en el régimen público. Se considera que los factores como la competencia entre regímenes, el combate de la informalidad y las formas alternativas de cotización cuando las personas dejan de cotizar para la pensión, constituyen políticas que recomendablemente se deben revisar si se aspira a optimizar los sistemas pensionales en Colombia.
Abstract: This research analyzes the determinants of contribution density and transition rates in Colombia. A linear, ordinal model is implemented to explain the factors that affect contribution density and replacement rates. As an input, the 2012 Longitudinal Social Protection Survey is used with information on 7,712 individuals within the economically active population and the 2013 and 2016 Longitudinal Survey of the Universidad de los Andes. The results show that on average Colombians do not contribute half of their working life, equivalent to 7 years. The socioeconomic variables related to their contribution level are experience, sex, education and marital status. In addition, economic growth generates a significant impact on labor trajectory, as in the case of employees who started their first job since 1999. They show a contribution density 4% lower than their peers who started their first job in 1995. Among other relevant results, it can be seen that 20% of employed people do not have the minimum number of weeks of contribution required in the public system. Factors such as competition between regimes, the fight against informality and alternative forms of contribution when people stop contributing to pensions are policies that should be reviewed if pension systems in Colombia are to be optimized.
Abstract: This research analyzes the determinants of contribution density and transition rates in Colombia. A linear, ordinal model is implemented to explain the factors that affect contribution density and replacement rates. As an input, the 2012 Longitudinal Social Protection Survey is used with information on 7,712 individuals within the economically active population and the 2013 and 2016 Longitudinal Survey of the Universidad de los Andes. The results show that on average Colombians do not contribute half of their working life, equivalent to 7 years. The socioeconomic variables related to their contribution level are experience, sex, education and marital status. In addition, economic growth generates a significant impact on labor trajectory, as in the case of employees who started their first job since 1999. They show a contribution density 4% lower than their peers who started their first job in 1995. Among other relevant results, it can be seen that 20% of employed people do not have the minimum number of weeks of contribution required in the public system. Factors such as competition between regimes, the fight against informality and alternative forms of contribution when people stop contributing to pensions are policies that should be reviewed if pension systems in Colombia are to be optimized.