Uncertainty of outcome hypothesis in professional football: A scoping review

dc.contributor.advisorStadtmann, Georg
dc.contributor.advisorGarzón Santos, Claudia Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorMoreno Garzón, Andrés Camilo
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-25T19:59:46Z
dc.date.available2022-08-25T19:59:46Z
dc.date.issued2022-04-28
dc.descriptionilustraciones, tablasspa
dc.description.abstractThis paper reviews empirical studies that tested the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis proposed by Rottenberg (1956) on the European professional football attendees. First, it reviews the theoretical aspects of the Outcome Uncertainty Hypothesis, match and championship outcome uncertainty measures, and its precedents in European football. In addition, they examine eight empirical articles selected using the scoping review model and compare them in function of shared variables and outcomes. This paper analyses research conducted in different leagues of English football, German Bundesliga, Spanish league, Serie A (Italian league), and Swiss and Austrian leagues. The analysis of this selection concluded that most studies reject the hypothesis of uncertainty of match outcomes and accept the uncertainty of championship outcomes. However, it does not represent a generalisable conclusion due to the sample size.eng
dc.description.abstractEste artículo revisa los estudios empíricos que pusieron a prueba la hipótesis de la incertidumbre en el resultado propuesta por Rottenberg (1956) en los asistentes al fútbol profesional europeo. En primer lugar, se revisan los aspectos teóricos de la hipótesis de incertidumbre en el resultado, las medidas de incertidumbre de resultados de partidos y campeonatos, y sus precedentes en el fútbol europeo. Además, se examinan ocho artículos empíricos seleccionados mediante el modelo de revisión del alcance y se comparan en función de las variables y los resultados compartidos. Este trabajo analiza las investigaciones realizadas en diferentes ligas del fútbol inglés, la Bundesliga alemana, la liga española, la Serie A (liga italiana) y las ligas suiza y austriaca. El análisis de esta selección concluyó que la mayoría de los estudios rechazan la hipótesis de la incertidumbre de los resultados de los partidos y aceptan la incertidumbre de los resultados del campeonato. Sin embargo, no representa una conclusión generalizable debido al tamaño de la muestra.spa
dc.description.degreelevelMaestríaspa
dc.description.degreenameMagíster en Administraciónspa
dc.description.notesPrograma de doble titulación Universidad Nacional de Colombia Universidad Europea Viadrina, Alemaniaspa
dc.format.extent49 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.instnameUniversidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.identifier.reponameRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.identifier.repourlhttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/spa
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/82116
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherUniversidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.publisher.branchUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotáspa
dc.publisher.departmentEscuela de Administración y Contaduría Públicaspa
dc.publisher.facultyFacultad de Ciencias Económicasspa
dc.publisher.placeBogotá, Colombiaspa
dc.publisher.programBogotá - Ciencias Económicas - Maestría en Administraciónspa
dc.relation.referencesArksey, H., & O’Malley, L. (2005). Scoping studies: towards a methodological framework. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, 8(1), 19-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/1364557032000119616spa
dc.relation.referencesArrondel, L., & Duhautois, R. (2019). Are French Football Fans Sensitive to Outcome Uncertainty?. Economie et Statistique, 513(1), 5-26. DOI:10.24187/ecostat.2019.513.2001spa
dc.relation.referencesBesters, L. M., van Ours, J. C., & van Tuijl, M. A. (2019). How outcome uncertainty, loss aversion and team quality affect stadium attendance in Dutch professional football. Journal of Economic Psychology, 72, 117-127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2019.03.002spa
dc.relation.referencesBenz, M. A., Brandes, L., & Franck, E. (2009). Do soccer associations really spend on a good thing? Empirical evidence on heterogeneity in the consumer response to match uncertainty of outcome. Contemporary Economic Policy, 27(2), 216-235. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2008.00127.xspa
dc.relation.referencesBorland, J., & MacDonald, R. (2003). Demand for Sport. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 19(4), 478-502. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/19.4.478spa
dc.relation.referencesBudzinski, O., & Pawlowski, T. (2017). The behavioral economics of competitive balance: Theories, findings, and implications. International Journal of Sport Finance, 12(2).spa
dc.relation.referencesBuraimo, B., & Simmons, R. (2008). Do sports fans really value uncertainty of outcome? Evidence from the English Premier League. International Journal of Sport Finance, 3(3), 146-155.spa
dc.relation.referencesBuraimo, B., & Simmons, R. (2009). A tale of two audiences: Spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football. Journal of Economics and Business, 61(4), 326-338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2008.10.002spa
dc.relation.referencesBuraimo, B., & Simmons, R. (2015). Uncertainty of Outcome or Star Quality? Television Audience Demand for English Premier League Football. International Journal of the Economics of Business, 22(3), 449-469. https://doi.org/10.1080/13571516.2015.1010282spa
dc.relation.referencesCairns, J., Jennett, N., & Sloane, P. J. (1986). The economics of professional team sports: a survey of theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Studies, 13(1), 3-80. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1108/eb002618spa
dc.relation.referencesCaruso, R., Addesa, F., & Di Domizio, M. (2019). The determinants of the TV demand for soccer: Empirical evidence on Italian Serie A for the period 2008-2015. Journal of Sports Economics, 20(1), 25-49. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002517717298spa
dc.relation.referencesClarivate. (2022). Web of Science Confident research begins here. https://clarivate.com/webofsciencegroup/solutions/web-of-science/spa
dc.relation.referencesCoates, D., Humphreys, B. R., & Zhou, L. (2014). Reference-dependent preferences, loss aversion, and live game attendance. Economic Inquiry, 52(3), 959-973. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12061spa
dc.relation.referencesCzarnitzki, D., & Stadtmann, G. (2002). Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division. Empirical Economics, 27(1), 101-112. https://doi.org/10.1007/s181-002-8361-7spa
dc.relation.referencesDavis, K., Drey, N., & Gould, D. (2009). What are scoping studies? A review of the nursing literature. International journal of nursing studies, 46(10), 1386-1400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2009.02.010spa
dc.relation.referencesDowling, M., Leopkey, B., & Smith, L. (2018). Governance in Sport: A Scoping Review. Journal of Sport Management, 32(5), 438-451. https://doi.org/10.1123/jsm.2018-0032spa
dc.relation.referencesDownward, P., Dawson, A., & Dejonghe, T. (2009). Uncertainty of Outcome, Competitive Balance and Bias in Sports Leagues. In Sports Economics (pp. 205-231). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-7506-8354-8.00008-9spa
dc.relation.referencesEly, J., Frankel, A., & Kamenica, E. (2015). Suspense and surprise. Journal of Political Economy, 123(1), 215-260. https://doi.org/10.1086/677350spa
dc.relation.referencesElsevier. (2022). Elsevier at a glance. https://www.elsevier.com/about/this-is-elsevierspa
dc.relation.referencesForrest, D., & Simmons, R. (2002). Outcome uncertainty and attendance demand in sport: the case of English soccer. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 51(2), 229-241. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00314spa
dc.relation.referencesForrest, D., Simmons, R., & Buraimo, B. (2005). Outcome uncertainty and the couch potato audience. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 52(4), 641-661. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2005.00360.xspa
dc.relation.referencesFort, R., & Maxcy, J. (2003). Competitive balance in sports leagues: An introduction. Journal of Sports Economics, 4(2), 154-160. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002503004002005spa
dc.relation.referencesGasparetto, T., & Barajas, ´A. (2018). Fan preferences: one country, two markets and different behaviours. European Sport Management Quarterly, 18(3), 330-347. https://doi.org/10.1080/16184742.2017.1394346spa
dc.relation.referencesGuironnet, J. P. (2018). Incertitude de classement final et affluence en Ligue 1 fran¸caise de football: une nouvelle approche. Revue d’´economie politique, 128(4), 641-666.https://doi.org/10.3917/redp.284.0641spa
dc.relation.referencesJennett, N. (1984). Attendances, uncertainty of outcome and policy in Scottish league football. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 31(2), 176-198. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1984.tb00472.xspa
dc.relation.referencesKrautmann, A. C., Lee, Y. H., & Quinn, K. (2011). Playoff uncertainty and pennant races. Journal of Sports Economics, 12(5), 495-514.spa
dc.relation.referencesLevac, D., Colquhoun, H., & O’Brien, K. K. (2010). Scoping studies: advancing the methodology. Implementation Science, 5(1), 69. https://doi.org/10.1186/1748-5908-5-69spa
dc.relation.referencesMartins, A. M., & Cr´o, S. (2018). The demand for football in Portugal: New insights on outcome uncertainty. Journal of Sports Economics, 19(4), 473-497. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002516661602spa
dc.relation.referencesNalbantis, G., Pawlowski, T., & Coates, D. (2017). The Fans’ Perception of Competitive Balance and Its Impact on Willingness-to-Pay for a Single Game. Journal of Sports Economics, 18(5), 479-505. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002515588137spa
dc.relation.referencesNeale, W. C. (1964). The peculiar economics of professional sports. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 78(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.2307/1880543spa
dc.relation.referencesPawlowski, T. (2013). Testing the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis in European Professional Football: A stated preference approach. Journal of Sports Economics, 14(4), 341-367. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002513496011spa
dc.relation.referencesPawlowski, T., & Anders, C. (2012). Stadium attendance in German professional football - the (un)importance of uncertainty of outcome reconsidered. Applied Economics Letters, 19(16), 1553-1556. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2011.639725spa
dc.relation.referencesPawlowski, T., & Nalbantis, G. (2015). Competition format, championship uncertainty and stadium attendance in European football - a small league perspective. Applied Economics, 47(38), 4128-4139. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1023949spa
dc.relation.referencesPawlowski, T., & Nalbantis, G. (2019). Competitive balance: Measurement and relevance. The SAGE handbook of sports economics, 154-162.spa
dc.relation.referencesPawlowski, T., Nalbantis, G., & Coates, D. (2018). Perceived game uncertainty, suspense and the demand for sport. Economic Inquiry, 56(1), 173-192. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12462spa
dc.relation.referencesPham, M. T., Rajic, A., Greig, J. D., Sargeant, J. M., Papadopoulos, A., & McEwen, S. A. (2014). A scoping review of scoping reviews: advancing the approach and enhancing the consistency. Research synthesis methods, 5(4), 371-385.https://doi.org/10.1002/jrsm.1123spa
dc.relation.referencesPeters, M. D., Godfrey, C. M., Khalil, H., McInerney, P., Parker, D., & Soares, C. B. (2015). Guidance for conducting systematic scoping reviews. JBI Evidence Implementation, 13(3), 141-146. https://doi.org/10.1097/XEB.0000000000000050spa
dc.relation.referencesPeel, D., & Thomas, D. (1988). Outcome uncertainty and the demand for football: An analysis of match attendances in the English football league. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 35(3), 242-249. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1988.tb01049.xspa
dc.relation.referencesPeel, D., & Thomas, D. (1992). The demand for football: Some evidence on outcome uncertainty. Empirical Economics, 17(2), 323-331.spa
dc.relation.referencesP´erez, L., Puente, V., & Rodr´ıguez, P. (2017). Factors determining TV soccer viewing: Does uncertainty of outcome really matter? In International Journal of Sport Finance, 12, 124-139.spa
dc.relation.referencesRitchie, J., Spencer, L., & O’Connor, W. (2003). Carrying out qualitative analysis. Qualitative research practice: A guide for social science students and researchers, 2003, 219-62.spa
dc.relation.referencesRottenberg, S. (1956). The baseball players’ labor market. Journal of Political Economy, 64(3), 242-258. https://doi.org/10.1086/2577 90spa
dc.relation.referencesSanderson, A. R., & Siegfried, J. J. (2003). Thinking about competitive balance. Journal of Sports Economics, 4(4), 255-279. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002503257321spa
dc.relation.referencesSauer, R. D. (1998). The economics of wagering markets. Journal of economic Literature, 36(4), 2021-2064.spa
dc.relation.referencesScelles, N., Durand, C., Bonnal, L., Goyeau, D., & Andreff, W. (2013). Competitive balance versus competitive intensity before a match: Is one of these two concepts more relevant in explaining attendance? The case of the French football Ligue 1 over the period 2008-2011. Applied Economics, 45(29), 4184-4192.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846 .2013.770124spa
dc.relation.referencesSchreyer, D., & Ansari, P. (2021). Stadium Attendance Demand Research: A Scoping Review. Journal of Sports Economics, 1-40. https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025211000404spa
dc.relation.referencesSchreyer, D., & D¨auper, D. (2018). Determinants of spectator no-show behaviour: first empirical evidence from the German Bundesliga. Applied Economics Letters, 25(21), 1475-1480. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1430314spa
dc.relation.referencesSchreyer, D., Schmidt, S. L., & Torgler, B. (2017). Game Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for International Football Games: Evidence From the German TV Market. Journal of Media Economics, 30(1), 31-45.spa
dc.relation.referencesSchreyer, D., Schmidt, S.L., & Torgler, B. (2018). Game outcome uncertainty and television audience demand: New evidence from German Football. German Economic Review, 19(2), 140-161. https://doi.org/10.1111/geer.12120spa
dc.relation.referencesSerrano, R., Garc´ıa-Bernal, J., Fern´andez-Olmos, M., & Espitia-Escuer, M. A. (2015). Expected quality in European football attendance: market value and uncertainty reconsidered. Applied Economics Letters, 22(13), 1051-1054. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2014.997919spa
dc.relation.referencesSucharew, H., & Macaluso, M. (2019). Methods for research evidence synthesis: The scoping review approach. Journal of hospital medicine, 14(7), 416-418.https://doi.org/10.12788/jhm.3248spa
dc.relation.referencesTricco, A. C., Lillie, E., Zarin, W., O’Brien, K., Colquhoun, H., Kastner, M., Levac, D., Ng, C., Sharpe, J. P., Wilson, K., Kenny, M., Warren, R., Wilson, C., Stelfox, H. T., & Straus, S. E. (2016). A scoping review on the conduct and reporting of scoping reviews. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 16(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s128 74-016-0116-4spa
dc.rightsDerechos reservados al autor, 2022spa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.rights.licenseAtribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacionalspa
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/spa
dc.subject.ddc510 - Matemáticas::519 - Probabilidades y matemáticas aplicadasspa
dc.subject.proposalAttendanceeng
dc.subject.proposalDemandeng
dc.subject.proposalUncertainty of Outcomeeng
dc.subject.proposalFootballeng
dc.subject.proposalSoccereng
dc.subject.proposalAsistenciaspa
dc.subject.proposalDemandaspa
dc.subject.proposalIncertidumbre del resultadospa
dc.subject.proposalFútbolspa
dc.subject.spinesTeoría de probabilidadesspa
dc.subject.spinesProbability theoryeng
dc.subject.unescoCompetencia deportivaspa
dc.subject.unescoSports competitionseng
dc.titleUncertainty of outcome hypothesis in professional football: A scoping revieweng
dc.title.translatedHipótesis de la incertidumbre en el resultado en el fútbol profesional: Una revisión de alcancespa
dc.typeTrabajo de grado - Maestríaspa
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdccspa
dc.type.coarversionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aaspa
dc.type.contentTextspa
dc.type.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisspa
dc.type.redcolhttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TMspa
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentAdministradoresspa
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentEstudiantesspa
dcterms.audience.professionaldevelopmentInvestigadoresspa
oaire.accessrightshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2spa

Archivos

Bloque original

Mostrando 1 - 1 de 1
Cargando...
Miniatura
Nombre:
10154295092022.pdf
Tamaño:
582.58 KB
Formato:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Descripción:
Tesis de Maestría en Administración

Bloque de licencias

Mostrando 1 - 1 de 1
No hay miniatura disponible
Nombre:
license.txt
Tamaño:
1.71 KB
Formato:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Descripción: