Ley de Thirlwall y el modelo de dos brechas: una aplicación empírica
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Ruiz Martinez, Carlos Alberto
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El artículo de García y Ruiz (2009) unifica la Ley de Thirlwall y el modelo de dos brechas. En este trabajo se busca realizar una primera aproximación empírica al modelo con datos de la economía colombiana. En efecto, de acuerdo con los resultados, se observa que la principal restricción durante el periodo 1975 – 2013 fue la brecha externa y no la brecha de ahorro. Finalmente, se realiza una simulación de la brecha externa (o Ley de Thirlwall) y se señala que el crecimiento restringido por balanza de pagos estuvo muy cerca de lo efectivamente observado (4,2% en contraste con el 3,82% observado).
Abstract. Garcia and Ruiz (2009) unifies the Law Thirlwall and two-gap model. This paper seeks to make a first empirical approach to model data of the Colombian economy. Indeed, according to the results, it is observed that the main constraint during the period 1975 - 2013 was the external gap and not the savings gap. Finally, a simulation of the external gap (or Law Thirlwall) is performed and noted that growth constrained by balance of payments was very close to what actually observed (4.2% in contrast to 3.82% observed).
Abstract. Garcia and Ruiz (2009) unifies the Law Thirlwall and two-gap model. This paper seeks to make a first empirical approach to model data of the Colombian economy. Indeed, according to the results, it is observed that the main constraint during the period 1975 - 2013 was the external gap and not the savings gap. Finally, a simulation of the external gap (or Law Thirlwall) is performed and noted that growth constrained by balance of payments was very close to what actually observed (4.2% in contrast to 3.82% observed).