Modelo de cuantificación económica para implementación de sistemas inteligentes de transporte (ITS) en Medellín
Autores
Peláez Valencia, Ana María
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Tipo de contenido
Trabajo de grado - Maestría
Idioma del documento
EspañolFecha de publicación
2016-04-22
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Resumen
Para obtener indicadores de costo beneficio de las tecnologías ITS se requiere previamente la valoración de sus impactos. Este trabajo presenta una aproximación metodológica basada en el concepto de valor en riesgo operativo (VaRop) para la estimación de las pérdidas económicas máximas esperadas por accidentes viales y congestión vial no recurrente en Medellín, expost a la implementación de los Sistemas Inteligentes de Transporte (ITS) en la ciudad. Se aplica un modelo de perdidas agregadas DPA mediante el programa @Risk y la simulación de Montecarlo. La base informativa es primaria del Centro de Control de Tránsito de la Secretaría de Movilidad de Medellín. Para el primer propósito, se identificaron las distribuciones de probabilidad asociadas a las series de accidentes tanto para la frecuencia de los eventos por hora como para el costo de los mismos, las cuales fueron agregadas mediante un proceso de simulación Montecarlo. Para el caso congestión se planteó un modelo basado en la distribución de los tiempos de respuesta y atención de incidentes, a la cual se le incorporaron las relaciones para el análisis de intersecciones con semáforos, agregadas igualmente en un proceso de simulación Montecarlo; para cuantificar demora causada por congestión no recurrente. El estudio evidencia la gravedad del problema de los accidentes viales y la congestión asociada a estos accidentes en Medellín, con unas pérdidas económicas máximas por accidentes de $9.800 millones COP/día y valor promedio por día de aproximadamente $6.226 millones COP/día; y máximo $2.302 millones COP/día en congestión, valor promedio de 1.734 millones COP/día, lo que representa el 4.60% y 1.21% del PIB de la ciudad respectivamente; además, refleja el beneficio de la implementación de las tecnologías ITS en la ciudad.
Abstract: In order to obtain ITS cost-benefit indicators, it is required their previous impact assessment. This work presents an approximation to a methodology based on the operational Value at Risk. It will estimate the maximum expected economic loss, caused by road accidents and non-recurring road congestion (Congestion caused by the decrement of the road capacity due to road incidents) in Medellín after the implementation of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) within the city. A Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) model will be applied using @Risk software and Montecarlo simulation. The primary information used comes from the Traffic Management Center of Medellín. For the first objective, the probability distributions that better adjust to the accidents series were identified regarding its frequency and cost, which were aggregated using Montecarlo simulation. For the congestion case it was defined a model based on the incidents response and attention time distribution, to which mathematical formulas for the traffic light intersections analysis were incorporated. They were also aggregated using Montecarlo simulation, to quantify the non-recurrent congestion delays. This study shows the seriousness of the road accidents and congestion problems in Medellín, with a maximum economic loss due to accidents of COP 9.800 million COP / day and an average value per day of COP $ 6.226 million. And maximum COP $ 2,302 million per day in congestion, an average value of COP 1,734 million per day, which represent 4.60% and 1.21% GDP of the city respectively; furthermore it reflects the benefits of implementing ITS technologies in the city.
Abstract: In order to obtain ITS cost-benefit indicators, it is required their previous impact assessment. This work presents an approximation to a methodology based on the operational Value at Risk. It will estimate the maximum expected economic loss, caused by road accidents and non-recurring road congestion (Congestion caused by the decrement of the road capacity due to road incidents) in Medellín after the implementation of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) within the city. A Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) model will be applied using @Risk software and Montecarlo simulation. The primary information used comes from the Traffic Management Center of Medellín. For the first objective, the probability distributions that better adjust to the accidents series were identified regarding its frequency and cost, which were aggregated using Montecarlo simulation. For the congestion case it was defined a model based on the incidents response and attention time distribution, to which mathematical formulas for the traffic light intersections analysis were incorporated. They were also aggregated using Montecarlo simulation, to quantify the non-recurrent congestion delays. This study shows the seriousness of the road accidents and congestion problems in Medellín, with a maximum economic loss due to accidents of COP 9.800 million COP / day and an average value per day of COP $ 6.226 million. And maximum COP $ 2,302 million per day in congestion, an average value of COP 1,734 million per day, which represent 4.60% and 1.21% GDP of the city respectively; furthermore it reflects the benefits of implementing ITS technologies in the city.