El desarrollo como determinante de la magnitud de los desastres en Colombia 2000-2012
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Perez Aldana, Lizeth Yurany
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Los desastres han paso de ser concebidos como un evento natural a ser estudiados como un fenómeno socialmente construido, que se transformó en un problema de y para el desarrollo. En este contexto se plantea como hipótesis que, los desastres y su impacto están en función de las condiciones socioeconómicas e institucionales de un territorio, debido a que estas determinan su nivel de vulnerabilidad. El presente documento evaluó dicha hipótesis para Colombia a partir de estimar un modelo Logit multinomial ordenado con base en los registros de desastres ocurridos en el país durante el período 2000-2012. Los resultados señalaron que cubrir las necesidades básicas de la población reduce el impacto y ocurrencia de desastres; sin embargo, estar por encima de los niveles básicos no es suficiente para reducir el riesgo, y puede configurar escenarios de vulnerabilidad.
Abstract Disasters have passed from being conceived as natural events to being studied as a socially constructed phenomenon. This is a problem of and for development. In this context, it is hypothesized that disasters and their effects depend on the socio-economic and institutional conditions of a region, given that these determine its level of vulnerability. This document applied that hypothesis to Colombia by estimating an ordered multinomial logit model based on registered disasters in Colombia in 2000-2012. The results showed that covering basic population needs reduces the impact of disasters and the likelihood of their occurrence. Having said that, however, being above these basic levels is not enough to reduce the risk. In fact, it can be associated with higher vulnerability.
Abstract Disasters have passed from being conceived as natural events to being studied as a socially constructed phenomenon. This is a problem of and for development. In this context, it is hypothesized that disasters and their effects depend on the socio-economic and institutional conditions of a region, given that these determine its level of vulnerability. This document applied that hypothesis to Colombia by estimating an ordered multinomial logit model based on registered disasters in Colombia in 2000-2012. The results showed that covering basic population needs reduces the impact of disasters and the likelihood of their occurrence. Having said that, however, being above these basic levels is not enough to reduce the risk. In fact, it can be associated with higher vulnerability.