Exportaciones petroleras y su incidencia en los sectores industriales
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Sánchez Blanco, María Constanza
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Esta investigación busca estudiar el impacto de la bonanza petrolera en Colombia durante el periodo 2004 a 2014, para un grupo de sectores industriales seleccionados. Este efecto es medido a través de los choques en los términos de intercambio recogidos a través de un índice de tasa de cambio real del crudo (ITCR-C). Los resultados de las pruebas realizadas a través de modelos de Vector Autorregresivo (VAR (p)) para cada sector de la industria seleccionado evidencian que sí existe una relación frente a este fenómeno; además se concluye que, a pesar de la respuesta positiva de un pequeño grupo de sectores frente al choque generado por la expansión minera, la crisis económica internacional (2008-2009) logró desestimular completamente el dinamismo industrial, así, como otros factores asociados a la competencia externa, profundizaron este comportamiento.
Abstract: This research is aim to study the impact of crude - mining boom in Colombia during the period 2004 – 2014, on a group of selected industries. This economic impact is calculated through of shocks in exchange terms, expressed in a real exchange rate of crude (REER - C). The results based on vector autoregressive models (VAR(p)) for each sector selected, shows the existence of a relation because of this phenomenon; as well as, it concludes that, despite of an initial positive answer of a small group of industrial sectors because of the shocks caused by the miner boom, the international economic crisis (2008 - 2009) discouraged the industrial dynamic, as well as, other variables related to the external competition, deepened this behavior.
Abstract: This research is aim to study the impact of crude - mining boom in Colombia during the period 2004 – 2014, on a group of selected industries. This economic impact is calculated through of shocks in exchange terms, expressed in a real exchange rate of crude (REER - C). The results based on vector autoregressive models (VAR(p)) for each sector selected, shows the existence of a relation because of this phenomenon; as well as, it concludes that, despite of an initial positive answer of a small group of industrial sectors because of the shocks caused by the miner boom, the international economic crisis (2008 - 2009) discouraged the industrial dynamic, as well as, other variables related to the external competition, deepened this behavior.