Aproximación al concepto de probabilidad condicional dirigida a estudiantes de grado noveno
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Se propone e implementa una secuencia didáctica para promover en estudiantes de noveno grado la construcción del concepto de probabilidad condicional desde un enfoque frecuentista, usando datos recolectados a través de una encuesta virtual aplicada a esa misma población estudiantil. Se analizan las respuestas de 40 estudiantes de un colegio bilingüe a la luz de investigaciones previas relacionadas con la comprensión de conceptos, sesgos y dificultades en el razonamiento sobre probabilidad condicional. Se destacan dos hechos: que el número de errores cometidos disminuyó entre una actividad y la siguiente a lo largo de cuatro sesiones, y que algunos de los sesgos y dificultades estudiados en investigaciones previas fueron poco frecuentes en las respuestas observadas. Finalmente, se presentan algunas reflexiones sobre el alcance, los resultados y las posibles mejoras para posteriores aplicaciones de la secuencia propuesta. Palabras clave: Probabilidad condicional, secuencia didáctica, razonamiento probabilístico, sesgos y dificultades, representaciones.
Abstract: This document presents a proposal to foster in ninth grade students the construction of the conditional probability concept from a frequentist approach, using data collected through a virtual survey applied to that students’ population. The answers of 40 students from a bilingual school in Bogotá are analyzed based on previous research on the biases and difficulties in reasoning about conditional probability. Two facts are highlighted: the number of mistakes made decreased after the implementation of each activity, and some of the bias and difficulties reported in previous studies were not usual in the students’ answers. Finally, some reflections about the scope, the results and possible improvements for future applications of this proposal are presented. Keywords: Conditional probability, didactic sequence, probabilistic reasoning, biases and difficulties, representations.
Abstract: This document presents a proposal to foster in ninth grade students the construction of the conditional probability concept from a frequentist approach, using data collected through a virtual survey applied to that students’ population. The answers of 40 students from a bilingual school in Bogotá are analyzed based on previous research on the biases and difficulties in reasoning about conditional probability. Two facts are highlighted: the number of mistakes made decreased after the implementation of each activity, and some of the bias and difficulties reported in previous studies were not usual in the students’ answers. Finally, some reflections about the scope, the results and possible improvements for future applications of this proposal are presented. Keywords: Conditional probability, didactic sequence, probabilistic reasoning, biases and difficulties, representations.