El efecto del tipo de recaudo de los aportes al Sistema de Seguridad Social Integral y parafiscales sobre el mercado laboral
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Este trabajo utiliza una novedosa y rica fuente de datos para evaluar el impacto del cambio de la modalidad de pago de las prestaciones sociales de los empleados sobre: la probabilidad de utilizar planilla electrónica, el recaudo, el número de empresas que cotizan seguridad social, y la cantidad de empleados. El Decreto que cambia la modalidad de pago usa el número de empleados y el Ingreso Base de Cotización (IBC) para definir qué empresas y cotizantes deben hacer la autoliquidación y pagar los aportes utilizando la modalidad electrónica. El umbral definido por el Decreto genera una discontinuidad exógena, que se aprovecha en el presente trabajo, para estimar el efecto causal de estar obligado a usar la modalidad de pago electrónica y observar el comportamiento en el número de empresas, la cantidad de empleados y el valor recaudado; mediante el uso de un diseño de regresión discontinua. Los resultados muestran efectos positivos en el uso de la planilla por modalidad electrónica para los aportantes con 20 a 30 cotizantes (17.5% para marzo de 2017), y con 10 a 19 cotizantes (25,8% para marzo de 2018); y para los cotizantes independientes con un IBC igual o superior a 5 SMMLV (17.1% para marzo de 2017) y con un IBC entre 4 y 5 SMMLV (23% para marzo de 2018). Por otra parte, no se encontró efectos estadísticamente significativos sobre el recaudo, lo que permite concluir que el cambio de la modalidad de pago no desincentiva la afiliación ni de las pequeñas empresas ni de los cotizantes individuales.
Abstract. The current research uses data from the Colombian Parafiscal and Social Security System through the Contribution Settlement Integrated Form (known in Spanish as PILA) in order to analyze the impact of the decree 1990-2016 of the Ministry of Health and Social Protection on the likelihood of making use of the electronic form, the tax collection, and the number of companies and employees. The mentioned decree uses the number of employees and the base income for contribution (known in Spanish as IBC) to select the companies and subscribers that must pay using the electronic form method. This research uses the exogenous discontinuity generated from the threshold to estimate the causal effect of the obligation of using the electronic form method and to check the change in the number of companies and employees, and the amount collected; throughout the use of a regression discontinuity design. The results indicate that the use of the electronic modality brings about positive effects on the companies with 20 to 30 contributing members (17.5% by March, 2017), on the companies with10 to 19 contributing members (25,8% by March of 2018) as well as on the independent contributing members with an IBC equal to or greater than 5 times the legal minimum monthly wage in force SMMLV (17.1% by March of 2017) and with an IBC between 4 and 5 SMMLV (23% by March of 2018). Furthermore, no statistically significant relevant effects on the tax collection were found, which lead to the conclusion that there was not a relevant impact on the quantity of companies and employees.
Abstract. The current research uses data from the Colombian Parafiscal and Social Security System through the Contribution Settlement Integrated Form (known in Spanish as PILA) in order to analyze the impact of the decree 1990-2016 of the Ministry of Health and Social Protection on the likelihood of making use of the electronic form, the tax collection, and the number of companies and employees. The mentioned decree uses the number of employees and the base income for contribution (known in Spanish as IBC) to select the companies and subscribers that must pay using the electronic form method. This research uses the exogenous discontinuity generated from the threshold to estimate the causal effect of the obligation of using the electronic form method and to check the change in the number of companies and employees, and the amount collected; throughout the use of a regression discontinuity design. The results indicate that the use of the electronic modality brings about positive effects on the companies with 20 to 30 contributing members (17.5% by March, 2017), on the companies with10 to 19 contributing members (25,8% by March of 2018) as well as on the independent contributing members with an IBC equal to or greater than 5 times the legal minimum monthly wage in force SMMLV (17.1% by March of 2017) and with an IBC between 4 and 5 SMMLV (23% by March of 2018). Furthermore, no statistically significant relevant effects on the tax collection were found, which lead to the conclusion that there was not a relevant impact on the quantity of companies and employees.