Implicaciones del cambio sectorial en la tasa de desempleo en América Latina 1990-2016
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Ruiz Torres, Jesus Cristobal
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Trabajo de grado - Maestría
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EspañolFecha de publicación
2019-07
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En las últimas décadas, el mercado laboral mundial ha tenido un cambio sectorial hacia el sector servicios y América latina no ha sido ajena. Desde la década de los noventa las economías de la región hicieron el tránsito más o menos generalizado de transformaciones estructurales hacia modelos de apertura e integración mundial. En la actualidad la región presenta niveles de desempleo considerablemente altos. De igual forma la ciclicidad de las economías puede afectar el cambio sectorial del empleo en la medida que se experimenta una reasignación de sectores en la producción. El presente trabajo explora por primera vez los efectos macroeconómicos del cambio sectorial en la tasa de desempleo de 11 de las economías de América Latina. El estudio se propone ante la escaza literatura que existe en la región sobre el entendimiento del cambio sectorial como una posible razón que afecta el desempleo. A partir de una muestra anual para el periodo de 1990 a 2016 se construye un panel dinámico que emplea la heterogeneidad de las economías Latinoamericanas y se evalúa por diferentes técnicas la hipótesis del cambio sectorial de Lilien. Los resultados son contrastantes con la hipótesis planteada. No se encuentra evidencia estadística de que los efectos de reasignación laboral impacten en el desempleo. Estos resultados son robustos a pruebas adicionales aplicadas.
Abstract: In the last decades the world labor market has had a sectoral reallocation to the services sector. Latin America has not been the exception. Since the 1990s the economies of the region made the widespread transit to models of openness and global integration. Currently, the region has considerably high levels of unemployment. The same way the cyclicality of economies can affect the sectoral change in employment while that reallocation of sectors in production is experienced. This paper explores for the first time the macroeconomic effects of sectoral shift in the unemployment rate for 11 Latin American countries. The study is proposed because exist scarcity of research in the region to the understanding the sectoral shift as a possible reason that affects unemployment. For the period 1990 to 2016 a dynamic panel is constructed that uses the heterogeneity of Latin American economies and the hypothesis of Lilien's sectoral change is evaluated by different techniques. The results are contrasting with the hypothesis. No statistical evidence is found that the effects of labour reallocation impact on unemployment. These results are robust to additional tests applied.
Abstract: In the last decades the world labor market has had a sectoral reallocation to the services sector. Latin America has not been the exception. Since the 1990s the economies of the region made the widespread transit to models of openness and global integration. Currently, the region has considerably high levels of unemployment. The same way the cyclicality of economies can affect the sectoral change in employment while that reallocation of sectors in production is experienced. This paper explores for the first time the macroeconomic effects of sectoral shift in the unemployment rate for 11 Latin American countries. The study is proposed because exist scarcity of research in the region to the understanding the sectoral shift as a possible reason that affects unemployment. For the period 1990 to 2016 a dynamic panel is constructed that uses the heterogeneity of Latin American economies and the hypothesis of Lilien's sectoral change is evaluated by different techniques. The results are contrasting with the hypothesis. No statistical evidence is found that the effects of labour reallocation impact on unemployment. These results are robust to additional tests applied.