Desindustrialización frente a la Dominancia en Balanza de Pagos en América Latina
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Peña Galeano, Camilo Andrés
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Ocampo, José Antonio
García Molina, Mario
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2019-10-30, 2019-10-30
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Este documento estudia el proceso de desindustrialización en América Latina en un contexto de Dominancia en Balanza de Pagos, durante el auge en los precios de las materias primas. Para ello, se definen los países dominados en balanza de pagos y se evalúan los efectos de la dominancia en la ciclicidad de la política económica. Acto seguido, se construye un modelo de datos panel con información trimestral para seis países de América Latina identificados como dominados en balanza de pagos. Como resultado se encontró que el ciclo externo tiene un efecto significativo en la desindustrialización en los países dominados en Balanza de Pagos en América Latina durante el auge de precios de las materias primas. La desindustrialización generada por el sector externo, en un contexto de dominancia en balanza de pagos, contribuye a la desindustrialización prematura de los países de América Latina.
This paper studies the Latin American deindustrialization process in a Balance of Payments Dominance context during the boom of commodities prices. For this purpose, we define the Balance of Payments Dominated Countries and evaluate the Balance of Payments Dominance effect in the cyclical bias of economic policies. Then, a quarterly panel data model was created with information of six Latin American countries identified as dominated by the balance of payments. As a result, it is found that the external business cycle and the economic development stage had a significant effect on the deindustrialization process in Latin America during the boom of commodities prices. The deindustrialization created by external sector, in Balance of Payment Dominance Context, contributes to the premature deindustrialization in Latin America.
This paper studies the Latin American deindustrialization process in a Balance of Payments Dominance context during the boom of commodities prices. For this purpose, we define the Balance of Payments Dominated Countries and evaluate the Balance of Payments Dominance effect in the cyclical bias of economic policies. Then, a quarterly panel data model was created with information of six Latin American countries identified as dominated by the balance of payments. As a result, it is found that the external business cycle and the economic development stage had a significant effect on the deindustrialization process in Latin America during the boom of commodities prices. The deindustrialization created by external sector, in Balance of Payment Dominance Context, contributes to the premature deindustrialization in Latin America.